MLB Betting Picks for Monday 4/29/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Monday 4/29/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET

Brewers Moneyline (-108)

On Monday, there's an intriguing interleague series churning in America's Dairyland. The Tampa Bay Rays (13-16) will head to Wisconsin for three games versus the Milwaukee Brewers (17-10).

In the series opener, the projected starters at American Family Field are Ryan Pepiot and Bryse Wilson. Pepiot has been solid in his first season for the Rays, but he's allowing a 43.5% Statcast hard-hit rate. Across the way, Wilson currently holds a skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of 3.85.

Both sides here have playoff aspirations in 2024, but the Brewers have handled themselves better as of late. Tampa arrives in Milwaukee after being swept by the lowly Chicago White Sox, which was a series wherein the Rays gave up 21 runs over three days. Dating back to April 21st, Tampa Bay has only won one contest.

The Brew Crew has been an exciting offensive team this year. At the moment, Milwaukee boasts a .763 OPS, which is the fourth-best clip in MLB. Backstop William Contreras has been especially good, having earned 22 RBI. From there, infielders Willy Adames (.359 wOBA) and Rhys Hoskins (6 HR) have done well to power the lineup in Christian Yelich's (back) absence.

In this spot, I like the Brewers to win outright at home. Tampa is reeling right now, and I think Milwaukee's moneyline price of -108 odds has true value. The game projections at numberFire concur, yielding a 51.0% chance at victory for the home side.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 10.0 Runs (-120)

Putting the NL West on display, Monday will commence a divisional series between the Los Angeles Dodgers (18-12) and Arizona Diamondbacks (13-16). With two free-swinging teams playing at Chase Field, which is a hitter's venue, I think we can challenge this game's set total of 10.0 runs -- let's target the over (-120 odds).

Off the bat, these are currently the top-two scoring teams in baseball. Los Angeles has produced 5.27 runs per game while the D-backs are slightly better at 5.31 runs per game. The law of averages there goes over this double-digit total. With this contest taking place in downtown Phoenix, I am willing to wager on rampant scoring tonight.

Chase Field -- situated at 1,100 ft. elev. -- is a fantastic stadium to take hacks in, which is echoed by its home run Park Factor Score (106). Considering the many sluggers suiting up for this bid (Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Ketel Marte, Freddie Freeman, Lourdes Gurriel, Corbin Carroll etc.), we should see several baseballs reach the outfield bleachers.

The probable pitchers for L.A. and Arizona's first meeting of 2024 will be dueling southpaws James Paxton and Tommy Henry. Paxton has not been his sharpest; he is currently tagged with a dismal 6.93 SIERA. Henry has been more efficient, but this Dodger team is hitting lefties for a collective .278 BA and .752 OPS right now.

In 2023, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks met six times at Chase Field. Throughout that sample, we saw an average total of 10.67 runs scored in each bid. Simply, I think that offensive prowess translates over to Monday.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

Pirates Moneyline (-126)

Staying in Northern California after losing two of three games against the San Francisco Giants, the Pittsburgh Pirates (14-15) will cross the Bay Bridge to start a series with the Oakland Athletics (12-17). The A's are returning home after a three-city road trip on the East Coast where they actually managed to win three of their last four games.

In this spot, Oakland is the hotter team compared to Pittsburgh. Still, I can't say that I am in a hurry to bet on the Athletics' offense. At only 2.90 runs per game, the A's are the second-worst scoring team in the Majors.

This interleague clash at the Oakland Coliseum might not be the most entertaining, but I believe the Pirates are in a solid position to grab a bounce-back win. Pittsburgh will start lefty Bailey Falter on the mound while Oakland hands the ball to Joe Boyle.

At the moment, Boyle is labeled with a 1-4 record and 7.06 ERA. Falter (0.89 WHIP) has been impressive in 2024, but what makes me most confident is the fact that the A's are sporting a .198 team BA versus left-handed pitching.

Back at numberFire, the MLB power rankings list the A's and Buccos more than 10 places apart. There, the Pirates (0.30 nERD) show up 15th overall while the Athletics (-0.98 nERD) are much further down at 26th. With that, I like Pittsburgh to win outright (-126 odds) on Monday in the East Bay.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.