MLB Betting Picks for Monday 4/22/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET

Over 9.5 Runs (-110)

As my colleague Kenyatta Storin alluded to in today's NRFI/YRFI bets to target, there is an NL East clash at Truist Park that could provide a fair bit of scoring. On Monday evening, we'll see the Atlanta Braves (14-6) host the Miami Marlins (6-17).

Currently, these divisional foes are on opposite ends of the grouping. This will be the Braves and Marlins first meeting of 2024, but Atlanta won the head-to-head series 9-4 just a year ago. Through that batch of games, we saw an average of 11.5 total runs when these two teams met up.

For Monday's series opener, the projected starters are Bryce Elder and Ryan Weathers. Elder is making his first start of 2024 while Weathers has allowed a 41.8% Statcast hard-hit rate this season. For the southpaw Weathers, that could spell trouble against the many right-handed sluggers on the Braves.

This season, Atlanta has produced 6.25 runs per game, which is MLB's pinnacle clip right now. The Fish are considerably lower at 3.81 runs per game, but they have done slightly better over their past eight contests, improving to 4.0 runs per game.

I like over 9.5 runs tonight in Cumberland, and so does numberFire's model, which has the Braves winning by a score of 6.08-4.76; that equates an estimated 10.84 runs.

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, 7:40 p.m. ET

Under 8.5 (-110)

Taking the opposite approach to the first recommendation, this AL Central meeting seems tailor made for an under play. I believe the Chicago White Sox (3-18) and Minnesota Twins (7-13) will fall short of this 8.5-run threshold tonight.

The ChiSox and Twins are set for a four-game division series at Target Field. Monday's bid will pit together two right-handed arms in Jonathan Cannon and Chris Paddack. Cannon has been so-so through one start for Chicago this season, currently displaying a 4.48 skill-interactive ERA. Paddack has experienced greater woes, showing a 5.16 SIERA.

Despite less-than-stellar pitching in this one, I still find it unlikely that these two offenses combine for nine total runs. In 2024, the White Sox have scored a Major-League worst 45 runs (or 2.14 runs per game). From there, Minnesota is just two places better than Chicago, having output 67 runs on the year (3.35 runs per game).

This is a spot where I don't mind challenging two struggling lineups. At .552 and .609, the White Sox and Twins are last and second to last in team OPS. If these two lineups burn me for nine or more runs today, so be it; I love under 8.5 here.

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET

Mets Moneyline (+100)

For a National League affair on the West Coast, let us take a look at the New York Mets (12-9) at San Francisco Giants (10-13).

Naturally, these two franchises will always have a historic tie, as the Metropolitans replaced the Giants as New York's N.L. squad back in the 1960s. However, in the present, the Mets appear a bit stronger than the side from San Francisco.

Back at numberFire, the MLB power rankings list New York (1.13 nERD) quite a bit higher than the Giants (-0.21 nERD). Additionally, the Mets have been on a tear as of late. They've won a dozen of their past 16 contests and arrive in the Bay Area after taking a series at Dodger Stadium. With that, I like the hotter team to win on the road tonight at even money.

The probable pitchers at Oracle Park this evening will be Keaton Winn and southpaw Jose Quintana. Winn is still looking for his place in a crowded S.F. pitching rotation, but his 4.10 SIERA is pedestrian. As for Quintana, he's given up just 0.87 HR/9 in 2024 despite facing the Braves and pitching at Great American Ball Park in two of his four outings.

I like the road team in this matchup for one prevalent reason -- the Mets' offense has been much more consistent compared to San Francisco's. New York boasts a .323 wOBA, which is currently a top-10 rate. In that same metric, the Giants are much lower at a .306 wOBA. Additionally, the Mets have earned a .714 team OPS while S.F. shows .699.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.