MLB Betting Picks for Monday 4/15/24

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Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, 7:40 p.m. ET

Royals -1.5 (+100)

To start the week, let's see if we can continue to bully the Chicago White Sox (2-13). On Monday, Chicago is set to open a three-game series on the Southside versus the Kansas City Royals (10-6). With these AL Central foes trending in opposite directions, what should we expect tonight?

Before we get into the specific matchups here, it should be noted that the White Sox are viewed near the bottom of most respected power-ranking lists, such as numberFire, MLB.com and Bleacher Report. As a team, Chicago's American League franchise currently shows a collective .266 OPS (tied-last). Simply, these are tough times in the Midway.

To the contrary, Kansas City has been entertaining and explosive in 2024. Entering Monday, the Royals are a half-game behind the Cleveland Guardians. K.C. has done well on offense, popping 20 home runs (tied-third in A.L.) as a team to this point. Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has been the guy, producing a 1.086 OPS and 54.0% hard-hit rate.

The projected starters for Monday will be righties Seth Lugo and Nick Nastrini. Lugo has been solid in his first year with Kansas City, showing a 52.5% ground-ball rate and zero homers allowed. On the other side, Nastrini -- a UCLA product -- will be making his Major League debut.

I believe there is enough difference here to play the Royals' run line at even money (+100 odds). K.C. is hot right now, having won 8 of their past 10 contests. Through that stretch, they have churned out 6.1 runs per game. Conversely, the ChiSox have produced 2.3 runs per game over their last 10.

All things considered, I am confident this fiery group from Kansas City can keep it rolling at Guaranteed Rate Field. As a final note, the Royals have already swept the White Sox once in 2024, covering the run line in three of four previous meetings.

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET

Brewers Moneyline (-112)

This should be one of the best series of the week's early portion. At the moment, the San Diego Padres (9-9) and Milwaukee Brewers (10-4) are each playing with swagger.

San Diego arrives in Wisconsin after winning two of three games at Dodger Stadium. Meanwhile, the Brewers are returning home with momentum of taking consecutive series from the Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds on the road. At this moment, we should see two premier sides of the National League.

For Monday, the probable pitchers at American Family Field are veterans Joe Musgrove and Joe Ross. Musgrove has been a little shaky in 2024, yielding a 4.42 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). For Ross, he is attempting to bounce back from a second Tommy John procedure. Ross has been efficient so far, surrendering just two earned runs through 10.0 innings pitched this year.

Still, we should not kid ourselves here; people will be in the seats tonight for the respective offenses. The Friars have swung the bat well this season, boasting 5.33 runs per game (tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers). However, the Brew Crew has been even better, producing a prolific scoring clip of 6.5 runs per game. That is tied with the Atlanta Braves for the best mark in baseball.

At this point, San Diego has four separate everyday starters with an OPS north of .800: Jurickson Profar (.960), Fernando Tatis Jr. (.900), Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth (.823). However, Milwaukee has five players that also qualify for that statement: Christian Yelich (1.166 OPS), William Contreras (1.116), Brice Turang (.903), Willy Adames (.899) and Rhys Hoskins (.827).

I am going to lean on home cooking in this matchup rather than the side that is on their second city of a six-game road trip. The Brewers have proven themselves to be more than formidable right now as they have covered the run line at a 64.3% clip. Be that as it may, I'd like to play it safer in this marquee meeting. I'll take Milwaukee to win outright (-112 moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook).

For added comfort, the Brewers (2.31 nERD) are currently the pinnacle team on numberFire's power rankings while the Padres (1.37 nERD) are seventh.

Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners, 9:42 p.m. ET

Over 7.0 Runs (-110)

Immediately, this game and market catches my eye for two reasons: the set total of seven runs (-110/-110) is one of the smallest numbers on Monday's chart, and the Cincinnati Reds (9-6) have been lighting up scoreboards.

Now, it could be that they were playing a lowly ChiSox team, but Cincinnati is coming off a weekend wherein they poured on 27 total runs. For Monday, the Reds will now head to the Pacific Northwest for an interleague series with the Seattle Mariners (6-10).

In terms of choosing a specific side here, this matchup can be tough to gauge. However, that guides me toward the totals market for this meeting at T-Mobile Park. Knowing that Cincy has been a darling for over bettors in 2024 (hitting in 11 of 14 contests this year), let's look for eight or more combined runs in the Emerald City.

According to numberFire's MLB game projections, this bid is pegged for approximately 8.17 runs. That translates to a 54.93% winning likelihood for over supporters on Monday. There is also the safety of a potential push since this line is without a hook. Of course, in Seattle, the opening pitching matchup will feature George Kirby and Frankie Montas.

Kirby has already surrendered 13 total earned runs through three prior starts in 2024. In his most recent home start, Kirby was blitzed by Cleveland for eight runs before the fourth frame. Montas -- who is in his first season since joining the National League -- has been solid for Cincy, but his current 4.18 SIERA is not anything we need to avoid.

Looking at these two batting lineups, we should feel good about the over.

Elly De La Cruz (.412 wOBA) and Spencer Steer (1.150 OPS) are doing their best "Big Red Machine" impressions while center fielder Will Benson is also mashing. For the M's, Julio Rodriguez' power numbers are bound to find their level. As Seattle's supporting cast, Mitch Haniger and Cal Raleigh have each had their moments in 2024. Either way, I think there is enough collective offensive power to output at least eight total runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.