MLB Betting Picks for Friday 4/19/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, 8:10 p.m. ET

Tigers Moneyline (+128)

Surprisingly, the AL Central has been one of the most interesting groupings to start 2024. At this point, Detroit Tigers (10-9) and Minnesota Twins (6-11) currently find themselves in the thick of it. So, who has the edge when these two sides open a three-game series on Friday?

The divisional foes met as recently as last weekend wherein four games were split evenly at Comerica Park. Through that recent series, we saw an average of 9.5 combined runs scored per game.

On Friday, Jack Flaherty will get the ball for Detroit while Joe Ryan is the starter for Minnesota at Target Field. Flaherty has been one of the Tigers' best arms in 2024, displaying a 3.07 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Ryan has also been sharp this season, allowing seven total runs through three starts.

Neither team is hitting the cover off the baseball right now, but Detroit's offense has been a bit better. The Tigers are currently yielding a .616 team OPS while the Twins display a .610 OPS. In regard to scoring, Detroit is at 3.74 runs per game, which is slightly higher than Minnesota's clip of 3.41 runs per game.

The first-five-inning result (Tigers +182) also catches my attention in this contest, especially since the Twins have produced an MLB-worst 1.24 F5 runs per game. However, Ryan deserves our respect, which steers me toward the full-game moneyline for Detroit (+128).

The power rankings at numberFire have the Tigers (0.43 nERD) listed considerably ahead of the Twins (-1.40 nERD). With Minnesota riding a four-game losing streak, they appear vulnerable. That sentiment is amplified when surveying recent numbers; the Twins have not scored more than four runs in a single game since April 13th.

Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Under 10.5 Runs (-115)

Genuinely, there aren't many days I wake up eager to play an under at Coors Field, but that is where I presently stand.

Recent weather has been chilly and slow in the Mile High. Friday's game is forecasted with temperatures in the upper 30s. With the Seattle Mariners (9-10) and Colorado Rockies (4-15) on hand in Denver, let's target under 10.5 runs (-115). Similar to our first game in this article, the M's and Rox are not considered to be prolific offensive sides this season.

In 2024, Seattle is operating with a lowly .293 team wOBA. Across the way, Colorado is striking out in 26.6% of plate appearances. Even with this game at the lofty confines of Coors, I believe these two lineups will have a tough time getting to 11 total runs in Friday's cold conditions.

The projected starters on the mound are Emerson Hancock and Dakota Hudson. Hancock displays a 4.18 SIERA for the Mariners, which is a solid clip. For the Rockies, Hudson has yet to collect his first win, but he's allowing only 0.52 HR/9 right now -- a figure that low is sharp for any hurler that plays for Colorado.

To this point, the Rox have scored a pedestrian 4.0 runs per game while Seattle is even worse at 3.47 runs per game.

On Friday night, it is tough for me to imagine these sides combining for a double-digit run total.

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Mets +1.5 (-126)

With East meeting West, the New York Mets (10-8) and Los Angeles Dodgers (12-9) are set for a premiere in Hollywood that's worthy of A-list buzz. This three-game series will feature copious talent, and the respective teams are paying through the nose for it.

According to Spotrac, the Mets and Dodgers are paying combined payrolls of nearly $536 million in 2024. It remains to be seen what sort of long-term ROI that will produce, but both ball clubs have shown mixed results this year.

On offense, Los Angeles is notably built behind the modern version of "Murderer's Row," as Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman have all earned league MVPs over the past six seasons. Still, the Dodgers' pitching has not held up their end. The Boys in Blue show a team ERA of 4.14, which is 17th in MLB.

Just as the Dodgers have entered a rut (losing five of their last seven games), the Metropolitans have turned on the juice. The team from Queens lost five straight contests to open 2024. Since then, they have snapped off 10 wins through 13 bids. In that span, the Mets have produced 5.85 runs per game.

At Dodger Stadium, Friday will feature a pitching battle of lefty Sean Manaea against MLB rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Through 16 career innings, Yamamoto is yielding a dangerous 55.0% Statcast hard-hit rate. For Manaea, he currently carries a solid 3.83 SIERA -- I think the southpaw can hold his own against a Dodger lineup with many left-handed threats.

I feel best about taking the 1.5 runs with New York (-126) in this coast-to-coast meeting. Lately, the Mets have been one of the strongest teams in all of baseball. With the Mets coming to California with momentum, I think they can defeat the struggling Dodgers on the road. At the very least, New York should keep this tilt close.

The MLB game projections at numberFire concur. Their model has Los Angeles narrowly ahead by a score of 4.36-4.03 tonight. In the run-line market, that equates to a 61.71% winning likelihood for the Mets. I can dig it!

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.