MLB Betting Picks for Friday 4/12/24

4mo

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox, 7:40 p.m. ET

F5 Result: Reds (-122)

Heading into the weekend, I am eyeing an interleague tilt on the Southside. This contest will feature the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago White Sox -- two teams trending in opposite directions.

Rather than playing a wager for the game's entirety, I think we can find better value by making a bet in the first-five-innings result (three-way) market. I do believe Cincinnati will eventually win this game outright, but the Reds' full-game moneyline number is a bit longer at -178. With that, I am on the visiting team to be ahead when the sixth inning begins.

Simply, I think Cincy's explosive lineup can get to White Sox starting pitcher Chris Flexen. Lefty bats Elly De La Cruz (1.081 OPS vs. RHP) and Will Benson (team-leading five doubles) should match up favorably against Flexen. Entering Friday, Flexen has been tagged with a 5.91 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) on the year.

Southpaw Andrew Abbott (0.87 HR/9 in 2024) will get the ball for Cincinnati on the road. This could be one of Abbott's easiest starts of the season, as Chicago's American League franchise is the lowest scoring team (2.42 runs per game) in baseball right now.

From there, the Southsiders are producing just 1.75 runs per game through the first five frames, which also ranks near the bottom. The Reds have been much more effective in terms of scoring early and often. In 2024, Cincy's F5 run rate sits at 2.75 -- an entire run better than the ChiSox in this category.

As a final note for this game, Tie is currently labeled with five-to-one odds in the aforementioned three-way market. I am certainly on Cincinnati here, but -- at +500-- it is tough to not put an additional light/sprinkle play on these sides being tied after five complete.

Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-104)

In the Pacific Northwest, another interleague series is brewing between the Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs. This is a contest I expect to be close, and that could possibly assist bettors going against the low total of eight runs at T-Mobile Park. Transparently, I will be one of those over supporters on Friday night.

The projected starters in Seattle this evening are Bryce Miller for the home side and lefty Jordan Wicks for the visitors. Both arms have been good -- not great -- in 2024, but each are allowing a Statcast hard-hit rate north of 38%. That is the sort of loud contact that could spell trouble for either with runners on base.

Currently, the Cubbies are boasting a .767 team OPS, which is a top-five figure in the game. Chicago stars Dansby Swanson (.893 OPS) and Seiya Suzuki (12 RBI) are both crushing in the batter's box right now. Of course, studs Cody Bellinger and Ian Happ are also bona fide offensive threats.

The Mariners, who are having a tougher time on offense compared to the Cubs, have a respectable batting lineup of their own. Star centerfielder Julio Rodriguez may be struggling at the plate, but he is still an elite-level offensive threat. After Rodriguez, Seattle role players Mitch Haniger (.806 OPS) and Ty France (.316 BA) are swinging the bat well.

I like over 8.0 runs in Seattle tonight, and so does numberFire. Per their game projections, the M's are expected to win by an estimated score of 4.27-3.97. Adding those figures together, we are left with a sum of 8.24 runs.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 (-122)

For an NL West clash, let us head out to Chavez Ravine for a Friday-night meeting between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. These sides have already met in a series once this year, but that occurred on the other side of the planet in South Korea.

Back in Southern California, the Boys in Blue will host the Friars at Dodger Stadium. With the looming weather forecast, there's a chance that Friday's bid is the only one unaffected by rain. Still, hitting conditions will be fair in this divisional series opener.

The probable pitchers for Padres-Dodgers are Michael King and rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is listed at +260 odds to win NL Rookie of the Year, per FanDuel Sportsbook, making him the favorite. Ironically, they were the winner (King) and loser (Yamamoto) for the second game of the Seoul Series. In that romp, San Diego knocked Yamamoto out of the game after just one frame, jumping on the rookie hurler for four hits and five earned runs.

Simply, this Dodger team will be a darling for over bettors. The first three hitters in Los Angeles' lineup all have a likely shot at eventual enshrinement in Cooperstown, as Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman have each earned a league MVP award at some point in their careers. They are all churning in 2024, as L.A. has produced 5.4 runs per game heading into Friday.

The Friars have proven to be a prolific offense, as well. They managed 15 total runs in that prior win over Yamamoto, as a majority of that damage was done versus the Dodgers' bullpen. Overall, the Padres are right behind their SoCal neighbor in terms of scoring, posting 5.33 runs per game. In particular, switch-hitters Jurickson Profar (1.012 OPS) and Jake Cronenworth (13 RBI) have been on fire to start 2024.

With all the offensive talent in both dugouts (sluggers Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Max Muncy, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez all went unnamed above), I see these division rivals combining for nine or more runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.