MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 3/31/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 3/31/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins

Marlins Moneyline (-130)

Despite Miami's ugly losing streak heading into Sunday afternoon, the Marlins have a great opportunity to get their first win this season in a duel between two southpaws on the mound.

Taking the hill for the home team, Trevor Rogers clearly rates as the better pitcher on Sunday despite inconsistent command in his last two seasons, accounting for a 3.82 career xFIP and a 26.0% K-rate while Pittsburgh's Bailey Falter profiles more as a journeyman with a 4.31 xFIP and a 19.2% K-rate in 141.2 career innings as a starter.

With a defined edge on the mound and a wide 8.1% gap between numberFire's 64.6% model win probability and the Marlins' 56.5% implied winning percentage, there are several reasons to feel confident backing the Fish as a favorite on Sunday afternoon.

New York Yankees at Houston Astros

New York Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-120)

In a favorable spot versus right-hander J.P. France, the Yankees will attempt to sustain their offensive momentum after scoring 17 runs in their first three games in Houston.

Coming off his first MLB season, France's metrics suggest his performance will likely regress and see a noticeable drop-off with a concerning difference between his 4.80 xFIP and 3.83 ERA while his reverse splits (5.48 xFIP, 14.5% K-rate) also present a major problem versus Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe.

In addition to New York's ideal matchup against France, there should be even more opportunities for the Yankees to exceed their team total in the middle to later parts of today's game against a shaky Houston bullpen that has accounted for a poor 5.69 xFIP and a league worst -0.8 Wins Above Replacement rating so far.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres Moneyline (-132)

Despite dropping two games in a row to their intrastate rivals, San Diego simply rate as the better team on Sunday.

Overall, the Padres hold the edge in pitching this afternoon when comparing Michael King's profile (4.12 xFIP, 25.2% K-rate in 79.0 career starting innings) to Daulton Jefferies' metrics (4.70 xFIP, 15.6% K-rate in 46.1 starting innings) while also fielding a higher rated offense (second versus seventh).

With both advantages in hitting and pitching, it's not surprising to see numberFire's models heavily value the Padres with an eye-popping 9.2% edge between San Diego's 66.1% win probability and their implied 56.9% percentage to beat their division competition.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.