MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/15/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/15/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles Over 4.5 Runs (-113)
Anthony Santander to Record 2+ Bases (+130)

Mired in an offensive slumber after producing just 14 total runs in their past four games, MLB's third ranked unit in wOBA and wRC+ have a great opportunity to emerge out of their cold streak with a 5.10 projected team total against veteran Taijuan Walker.

Despite their recent lackluster performances, we can feel confident Baltimore's elite offense has the perfect situation to expose Walker's troubling form when analyzing his below-average 4.82 xFIP and 4.88 SIERA during his time with Philadelphia, a glaring inability to miss bats (8.1% swinging strike percentage, 18.9% K-rate), and a troubling weakness (5.12 xFIP, 43.8% hard hit rate, 14.7% home run to fly-ball ratio) against left-handed hitters.

When evaluating his upcoming matchup versus a lineup stationed with six batters hitting from the left side including an emerging Anthony Santander accounting for a .277 expected average, 8 extra base hits, and a 42% hard hit rate in June, the O's should feast on Saturday afternoon versus a pitcher who has consistently struggled in his last 39 appearances.

San Diego Padres at New York Mets

Fernando Tatis to Record 2+ Bases (+105)

Despite Tatis' recent hitless steak in his last two contests, San Diego's star outfielder should get back on track versus left-hander Jose Quintana.

There are several reasons for optimism towards a potential turnaround at Citi Field especially when observing Tatis' proven track record hitting southpaws (.338 wOBA, 150 wRC+), his recent impressive form in June including a sizzling .363 expected average and a 60% hard hit rate in his last 58 plate appearances, and Quintana's troubling metrics against right-handed bats this season (4.77 xFIP, 39.4% hard hit rate).

When considering all the positive data points supporting Tatis and his matchup on Saturday, we should be jumping on a favorable opportunity to bet on the 25-year old to record at least two bases especially at a mispriced 48.7% implied percentage.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Over 8.5 Runs (-124)

In a matchup between two middling pitchers, there should be plenty of runs scored in Milwaukee.

Taking the mound for the "Brew Crew", Bryse Wilson can be profiled as a pitcher we love to target when analyzing his 5.42 career xFIP and 5.00 FIP in a starting role while on the opposing side Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott can be seen in a similar light with below-average skill-related metrics (4.62 xFIP, 18.6% K-rate).

With both starters heading in the wrong direction, our models expect both offenses to prevail in this National League Central matchup with an expected game total standing at 9.19 runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.