MLB Betting: Home Run Crown Winding Down to Slugging Lefties

Every sport has its annual thrilling statistical races. In gridiron football, there are accolades like the rushing yardage or touchdown crown. Basketball and soccer both have their respective scoring (points/goals) titles.

But perhaps there is nothing quite like MLB's yearly home run chase.

The adrenaline-inducing surge to hit the most home runs in any MLB regular season routinely draws the affection of fans, media outlets and bettors alike. Last year, the baseball world swooned at Aaron Judge's American League record-breaking performance of 62 big flies.

Judge has missed far too much time to participate in the 2023 home run race, but we are still seeing a neck-and-neck battle for the MLB lead between rangy sluggers Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson; among the two lefties, 87 homers have boomed off their barrels this year.

Ohtani -- showcasing 44 home runs before Friday's slate gets underway -- currently holds a one-stroke lead over Olson. Of course, things seem a little merky for Ohtani after Wednesday's announcement of a partial UCL tear; he will not pitch again in 2023.

Behind them, "Polar Bear" Pete Alonso is positioned third with 39 long balls. Mookie Betts and Kyle Schwarber are next, tied at 34.

With 35 or less games to play in the current campaign, let's take a final glance at one of the most exciting FanDuel Player Specials: who will be MLB's regular season home run leader in 2023?

All MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Matt Olson, Braves

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -200

A lefty hitter standing north of 6-foot-4, Olson has already eclipsed his previous personal-best total of 39 homers this season. Right now, he sits on 43 big flies for the Atlanta Braves and an OPS of .971. As recently as the All-Star break, Olson was +230 in this market on FanDuel. Obviously, that price has since fallen.

Olson clubbed his 43rd home run of the season back on August 13th versus the New York Mets -- that means he has now played in nine consecutive games without logging a round-tripper. In a bit of a funk right now, he has only produced one RBI behind a .136 batting average over the past week.

Looking at the ZiPS (ROS) projections via FanGraphs, Olson is also projected to produce 10 more home runs through the remainder of the 2023 regular season. That results in a potential 53 home runs for Olson, which would have been a high enough total to cash this market in most years from 2011 to 2021.

Olson can easily heat up over his next 35 games (three more than Ohtani) to take the MLB home run lead -- we'll see what he's got left in the tank.

Shohei Ohtani, Angels

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +200

Things haven't exactly progressed swimmingly for the Los Angeles Angels since the recent MLB trade deadline -- the Halos have played to a 5-16 record after July 31st. Regardless, Ohtani has continued to obliterate the baseball through the current month.

Along with his 44 dingers, Ohtani leads the Majors in qualified OPS at 1.069. He homered as recently as Wednesday, launching an Andrew Abbott first-pitch fastball 442-feet over the right-field fence. With a plus-money price of +200 at FanDuel Sportsbook in this market, keep in mind that Ohtani has one more homer than Olson right now. Shohei may have the AL lead on lock, but the overall MLB home run race is still alive and well at this point.

To close out the regular season, Ohtani still has favorable matchups with the Mets, Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics and others. The Angels have a total of 32 contests left to play. When referring back to the ZiPS (ROS) chart, it shows an estimated 9 more homers for Ohtani.

Pete Alonso, Mets

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +850

The Polar Bear is the only player featured on this list to have finished any season with the most home runs in Major League Baseball (2019). That year, Alonso crushed 53 baseballs over the fence. In the current campaign, he is at 39 homers.

His Metropolitans have not had the season they envisioned back in March, but Alonso is still having a thriving bid in the batter's box. Along with his home run total, he also has 95 RBI and a Statcast hard-hit rate of 41.9% this year. Considering he is barreling-up in 15.6% of plate appearances (career-best) right now, Alonso may actually have value on FanDuel Sportsbook at +850 odds in this market.

Currently, Alonso is five-off Ohtani's current home run lead. Considering the Mets have 32 games left to play in the regular season, Alonso would have to heat up exponentially over the next month to leap frog the competition. ZiPS (ROS) projects that Alonso will produce nine more long balls this season, which ultimately has him falling short.

Still, crazier things have happened.

Honorable Mention

Mookie Betts, Dodgers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +13000

Indisputably, Betts has been one of the best overall baseballers this season. A five-tool player, he fills up a stat sheet on any given night. Still, for a smaller framed professional athlete (listed at 5-foot-9, 190 pounds), Betts possesses power than can hang with the big boys.

In 2023, Mookie has blasted 34 homers, which is already one-shy of his personal-best mark. He has also done well to hit three balls out of the park over his last six games.

Currently 10 round-trippers short of Ohtani's 44, Betts is now a long shot at 130-to-1 odds to go absolutely nuclear and overtake the 2023 MLB home run lead. Hey, that's a much more lucrative price than his +1700 odds back at the break (July 11th).

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the MLB odds.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.