MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 8/23/23: Exploiting the Yankees' Platoon Advantage

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

Under 8.5 (-102)

So long as the Philadelphia Phillies' prolific offense doesn't explode, this bet looks to be in phenomenal shape.

Of course, that's assuming Michael Lorenzen can get back on track, and I believe he can. He was bit for six earned runs in a repeat matchup with the same Washington Nationals team that he no-hit earlier this month. Baseball! Prior to that, Lorenzen hadn't ceded more than three earned in six straight.

The righty's 4.12 expected ERA (xERA) is solid, and he'll benefit from the best matchup in the sport for his split. The San Francisco Giants have a league-worst 69 wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days. The Phils (118 wRC+) have been significantly better, and there's two sides to this under, but there is reason to believe Alex Cobb can have a nice day, as well.

Cobb is a tough guy to blow up because of his 56.7% groundball rate. He's ceded just 0.99 HR/9 despite a 16.5% HR/FB ratio that is well above the league average. He's one of few I'd forgive with a 44.6% hard-hit rate allowed because of this, and his public perception is probably at its lowest here following back-to-back blowup starts against the Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves.

These are also two top-12 bullpens (by xFIP) this season, so I feel tremendous about the full-game outlook of reduced scoring.

Washington Nationals at New York Yankees

Over 8.5 (-110)

This is my favorite play this month, so buckle up.

We cashed the Nationals' moneyline yesterday, but I'm guessing both teams at Yankee Stadium have some offensive success today. The New York Yankees draw a lefty, and the Nats will be the latest to get their turn at Luis Severino.

Severino's lost 2023 campaign will go down as a stinker for the record books. He's posted a 7.98 ERA that is -- unfortunately -- properly supported by a 6.77 xERA that ranks as baseball's worst qualifying mark. He's striking out a career-low 18.4% of batters and allowing a massive 46.2% hard-hit rate.

Washington isn't a juggernaut against righties, but they've held a serviceable 94 wRC+ with their traditionally low strikeout rate (19.4%) in the split over the past month of play. "Juggernaut" would be a decent way to describe the Bronx Bombers when facing a southpaw, though. In that same time period, New York has a 161 wRC+ (second in MLB) and miniscule 19.0% strikeout rate. Good luck to MacKenzie Gore today.

Gore will need it. He's got a strikeout rate to be excited about in the future (27.0%), but in the present, he's struggled, amassing a 5.02 xERA well into August. Gore has ceded 1.53 HR/9 and a 44.2% hard-hit rate allowed, as well. In terms of limiting damage, Gore is a below-average lefty about to set foot into the lion's den.

The Nationals also have a bottom-five bullpen (by xFIP) this season that's flammable at any time. I love these teams to rebound with offense after just three total runs on Tuesday.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians

Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

Chalk has cashed in baseball at a high clip this year, and it doesn't get chalkier than a -125 runline. I'm still taking it.

When the Cleveland Guardians are at the dish today, it'll be one of the most lopsided matchups between a pitcher and an offense of the entire season. Cleveland will draw Clayton Kershaw as -- indisputably -- baseball's worst current offense against left-handed pitching. They've posted an unfathomably bad .510 OPS against lefties in the past 30 days; no other club has a mark below .600. It's a special level of awful, and Kershaw is a special level of excellent.

The 35-year-old has a tremendous 3.55 xERA behind a 2.48 ERA that's even better, and he's struck out 26.7% of the batters he's faced this season. Kersh also has just a 37.2% hard-hit rate allowed, which is a mark well above the league average despite it being the second-highest of his career. This guy has been pretty good.

On the other side, the Los Angeles Dodgers' offense should light up Xzavion Curry. L.A. has a modest .719 OPS against righties in the past 30 days, but Curry is no ordinary righty. The rookie has a 4.89 xERA, a significantly elevated 48.9% flyball rate, and a 45.7% hard-hit rate allowed that is in the bottom-10 percent of MLB. He's been a launching pad, and the Dodgers -- now fully healthy -- will look to improve their recent downturn against righties to his detriment.

The Guards should have a brutal time scoring at all against Kershaw, so if L.A.'s offense plating a few off a mediocre righty is the win condition for this bet, I'll take it. It's a great opportunity for them to wash out the taste of last night's 7-3 defeat.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.