MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 10/4/23: An Evening Under in Milwaukee

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

Under 7.5 (-110)

Three of the four games yesterday went under.

Naturally, I like the only one that didn't -- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers -- to go under tonight.

That's largely due to the pitching matchup. After the teams combined to use 14 different pitchers last night, I'm expecting a lot more action from their starters. Two of the best arms in the 2023 National League square off as Zac Gallen faces Freddy Peralta.

Gallen was a Cy Young contender all season long, and while he likely didn't do enough to win it, he looked the part of a true ace. Gallen finished the regular season with a 17-9 record, 3.47 ERA, and 3.67 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's done an incredible job striking out hitters (26.0% K rate) while keeping the walks low (5.6% BB rate).

The only blemish on Gallen's resume is his quality of contact data. The righty gives up a sky-high hard-hit rate (46.2%) and a nerve-wracking rate of barrels (9.2%).

Still, that quality of contact didn't hurt him in two prior meetings with the Brewers. In a pair of starts against them during the regular season, Gallen gave up just a single run in 14.0 innings of work while striking out 15.

Struggles against righties is nothing new for the Brewers. For the season, Milwaukee ranked in the bottom 10 in wOBA (.305), ISO (.142), and wRC+ (90) in that split.

Between Gallen's track record against Milwaukee and their season-long struggles against righties, it won't be a shock to see the Brewers struggle to put up runs.

On the opposite side, the Diamondbacks faced similar issues against righties over the second half. From the All-Star break onward, Arizona, too, ranked in the bottom 10 league-wide in wOBA (.308), ISO (.148), and wRC+ (91) in at-bats against right-handed pitchers.

That bodes well for Freddy Peralta's chances tonight. The Brewers likely need a dominant performance from their budding ace if they want their season to live on another day.

If his second half was any indication, Peralta is up to the task. Peralta was up and down over the first few months of the season, but the underlying numbers always supported him turning things around. And, boy, did he turn things around.

From July 1st onward, Peralta made 14 starts. He compiled a 7-3 record over that span, posting a 2.96 ERA, 2.69 SIERA, and an outrageous 36.7% strikeout rate. Only twice did he allow more than three runs over that span, and he closed out the year by surrendering just a single run in three of his final five starts.

Given the rough splits for each offense and strong right-handed arms on both sides, this feels like a natural under.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 8.0 (-110)

The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies may not have gone over the run total yesterday, but they certainly didn't struggle to rack up hits. Despite scoring just five runs, the teams combined for 18 hits in the opener.

I'm expecting things to even out tonight with a pair of shaky arms on the bump.

Lefty Braxton Garrett starts for the Marlins, bringing with him a 3.66 ERA, 3.62 SIERA, and 23.7% strikeout rate. Garrett limits his walks (4.4% BB rate) and makes a living with ground balls, which he forces at a 49.1% clip.

However, he also gives up some loud contact. Garrett is in the bottom 10% of qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate (45.1%) and allows a concerningly high 90.2 MPH average exit velocity. He gets away with not throwing very hard (90.5 MPH average fastball velocity) thanks to a high ground-ball rate, but he hasn't been able to escape blow-ups against some of the better lineups in baseball.

The Phillies are a shining example of that. They faced Garrett twice during the regular season and had no problem putting up numbers on him. Across 10.0 innings versus Garrett, the Phillies put up 6 runs and 12 hits -- a common theme for them against left-handed pitchers.

In that split, Philadelphia was one of the best offenses in baseball, especially over the second half. After the All-Star break, the Phillies ranked third in both wOBA (.356) and ISO (.210) against left-handers while walking at the 11.2% clip in the split.

I'm not worried about Philly's offense for this play.

The bigger risk lies on the opposite side as the Marlins have been one of the more inconsistent offensive teams in the league over the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Miami ranks 19th in wOBA (.312), 21st in ISO (.160), and 22nd in wRC+ (93) against right-handed pitchers.

Thankfully, they'll face off with Aaron Nola -- a righty who's dealt with his own inconsistencies and whom the Marlins have already pounded this season.

Nola hasn't been nearly as effective as in prior years. Across 193.2 innings, Nola posted a 3.75 SIERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, and 38.5% hard-hit rate. Those aren't bad numbers by any means, but they're all significant steps back from his 2022 output.

He faced Miami three times during the 2023 regular season. Across 16.0 innings, Nola gave up 24 hits, 12 earned runs, and 5 home runs. He was awarded a pair of losses for his efforts, and the one he didn't lose (in early September) saw him last a mere 4.1 innings and give up 4 runs.

In general, Nola was highly inconsistent to close out the season, making Marlins ML (+126) an intriguing wager.

Still, with Philly's left-handed prowess, the over is a safer play. All we need is a blow-up from one of the starting pitchers to propel us to at least 8.0 total runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.