MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 8/24/23: A Total Too High on the South Side

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Washington Nationals at New York Yankees

Over 8.5 (-110)

In the same splits, we'll run back yesterday's top play here. A little participation from the Washington Nationals this time would be great.

Even earning a shutout, the New York Yankees topped this exact mark by themselves on Wednesday facing a lefty, and that's not a huge surprise. The Bombers' .941 OPS against southpaws in the past 30 days is second in MLB, and they've got an even better matchup today.

Washington will trot out Patrick Corbin, who is powering through another dismal year. Corbin's 6.23 expected ERA (xERA), paltry 15.4% strikeout rate, and 44.9% hard-hit rate allowed are horrid across the board. New York could cover this themselves again, but more likely than not, they'll get a bit of assistance from the Nats against the Yankees' bullpen.

New York has an excellent bullpen (3.85 xFIP), but its weakest arms should help them cover several of today's innings. Michael King (3.30 xERA) will get the start but hasn't exceeded 44 pitches in any of his recent stints as an opener. Washington's offense isn't great but might be a bit underrated at this point, posting a .707 OPS in the past 30 days. They're not the worst offense in baseball that we saw to begin the year.

While New York is certainly primed to do the heavy lifting offensively in this one, a reduced total and some assistance from the Nats certainly helps the case for this wager.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

Cubs -1.5 (+105)

The weather here is a bit sketchy, but the matchup is so good we have to take the risk it voids. The Pittsburgh Pirates have flailed against lefties for a good chunk of the summer, and they'll face a really good one today.

Justin Steele is that stellar southpaw, and he'd probably start a playoff series for the Chicago Cubs if called upon today. Steele's 3.50 xERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, and minuscule 35.8% hard-hit rate allowed are all a testament to a breakout 2023 campaign.

As mentioned, Steele has a pretty solid day at the office ahead of him. The Buccos' 73 wRC+ against lefties in the past 30 days is fourth-worst in MLB. On the flip side, the Baby Bears have crushed right-handers for a 129 wRC+ in the same span, and they'll draw Andre Jackson here.

Jackson has some swing-and-miss juice for the future (25.8% strikeout rate), but he's struggled in the present, holding a 5.69 xERA and an elevated 47.2% hard-hit rate allowed in his third season alternating between the big leagues and Triple-A. Critical mistakes have bit him for 2.05 HR/9 -- and you don't want to make those the way Chicago is swinging at present.

Just 3.5 games out in the NL Central, Chicago has maximum urgency to secure wins when they're profiled to do so. They'll absolutely have an advantage on both sides of the diamond today.

Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox

Under 9.5 (-102)

This is a large total for two offenses that have regularly stunk it up in 2023.

We can't have a lot of faith in the Chicago White Sox to light up Ken Waldichuk like many teams have this season. Waldichuk's 5.91 ERA is dreadful, but a 4.95 xERA does imply he's been a bit unfortunate. After all, Waldichuk keeps the ball out of the air a decent amount (39.4% fly-ball rate), but he's often self-sabotaging behind a 12.1% walk rate.

The Pale Hose are a great matchup for him with a meager 6.5% walk rate against lefties in the past 30 days, swinging and missing with regularity. Their 77 wRC+ overall against southpaws in this time is also pretty poor.

On the other side of this one, Jesse Scholtens might actually be a bright spot in Chicago's lost season. He's got a 3.92 xERA and allowed just a 35.1% hard-hit rate this year, which has helped him cede just 1.06 HR/9. There aren't many arms in the rotation at the moment with that sort of consistency, and while the Oakland Athletics are probably still underrated offensively against right-handers, their .707 OPS in the split during the past month still isn't very scary.

Therefore, both starters could find some success in this one. Now, am I terrified of these bullpens? Absolutely. They're bottom-seven ones in terms of xFIP during the past 30 days, so I gave consideration to Under 5.5 Runs in F5 Innings (-128), but the extra juice for effectively just four runs to avoid in four innings leaves both wagers producing similar expected values with either choice.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.