MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 10/19/23: Trusting Lefty Splits in Arizona

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From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Phillies ML (-122)

The Philadelphia Phillies have outscored the Arizona Diamondbacks 15-3 through the first two games of this series.

With Brandon Pfaadt on the bump for Arizona, I'm not expecting that run differential to get any smaller.

Pfaadt had an up-and-down inaugural campaign in the majors. He was initially called up in May but was subsequently sent back to the minors after posting an 8.37 ERA across his first five starts. He struggled again in a spot start at the end of June but finally made his permanent return to the bigs toward the end of July.

Pfaadt was better from that point forward, but his numbers still weren't great. He made 13 starts over the second half, closing out the year with a 4.22 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, and 5.4% walk rate. Even with improved results, Pfaadt still gave up a fairly high 14.4% HR/FB rate off of a 43.5% flyball rate over the second half -- a bad omen for someone about to face this Phillies lineup.

The Phillies have been red-hot this postseason, but they've been beating up right-handed pitchers all year. In the split, Philly ranked sixth in wOBA (.327) and eighth in ISO (.176) for the season. They really brought the power over the second half when they posted the third-highest HR/FB rate (17.0%) in that split from the All-Star break onward.

As a result, I don't think we need to worry about Philly scoring runs tonight. Consequently, we just need a strong showing from Ranger Suarez for this Phillies ML play to cash.

Considering Suarez's postseason track record, that shouldn't be a problem. The lefty has appeared in seven playoff games over the last two seasons. Across 23.1 innings of work, he's allowed just 13 hits and 4 runs, striking out 19 in the process. He tossed 8.2 innings of one-run ball over two starts against the Atlanta Braves in the Divisional Round and is well-positioned to thrive against Arizona tonight.

The Diamondbacks struggled against southpaws during the regular season, especially down the stretch. After the All-Star break, Arizona ranked 23rd in wOBA (.300) and 27th in ISO (.130) in that split -- though they did strike out at the lowest rate (17.0%) over that span.

If you're feeling greedy, Phillies -1.5 (+122) is certainly enticing at plus-odds. I don't expect this series to last much longer, and a Game 3 blowout would all but put the nail in the coffin for Arizona.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Astros Over 4.5 Runs (-115)

The Houston Astros bounced back in a major way last night, putting up eight runs as they inched one game closer to evening the series.

With Andrew Heaney toeing the rubber for the Texas Rangers, I'm expecting a lot more offense from the visitors.

Heaney will make just his third start since September 4th, having bounced in and out of the bullpen over the last month of action. He was solid during the regular season, registering a 4.15 ERA, 4.40 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and 23.6% strikeout rate. Heaney did give up a high barrel rate (10.2%) and allowed a modest hard-hit rate (38.6%) on top of that.

He made four starts against the Astros during the regular season, and it was a mixed bag. His first two outings against went great -- 10.0 innings, 0 runs, and just 5 hits allowed. The final two were less impressive. The Astros pounded him for 6 runs across 9.2 innings of work, cranking out 9 hits and striking out just 4 times in the process.

The latter is probably more representative of what to expect tonight. Houston absolutely shredded left-handed pitching during the regular season, particularly over the second half. From the All-Star break onward, the Astros led the league in ISO (.224) versus southpaws and ranked second in both wOBA (.367) and wRC+ (136) in the split.

However, I don't expect Heaney to go more than a few innings. He started Game 1 of the ALDS against the Baltimore Orioles and went only 3.2 innings before Dane Dunning took over.

Dunning is available to pitch tonight, and I'd be surprised if we didn't see the righty come in to mix things up. He finished the regular season with a 3.70 ERA. However, his SIERA was a tad higher (4.52) than Heaney's, and he struggled to generate strikeouts (19.4%). That said, he at least did a good job forcing ground balls (47.2%) -- even if he was rocked by Houston in their most recent meeting.

The Astros put up 9 runs off 11 hits against Dunning at the beginning of September. He allowed 3 home runs in that game -- although that wasn't exactly a new phenomenon for Houston. They really picked things up against righties over the second half, ranking fourth in wOBA (.347) and seventh in ISO (.188) after the All-Star break.

At the end of the day, I'm not sure the Rangers have an answer tonight for this Houston offense. That makes me friendly to Astros ML (-102), but I'm not sure I want to bet against this Rangers offense, either. Given how close the odds are, I'll play it safe and just stick with the Astros to score at least 5 runs tonight -- something they did in 9 of 13 regular season games against Texas.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.