MLB Betting Guide for Monday 9/18/23: Fading Early Runs in Oakland

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From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

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Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

Brewers -1.5 (+104)

Freddy Peralta is pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.

Adam Wainwright is pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

If that isn't enough to warrant a play on the Brewers -1.5, I'm not sure what is.

Peralta has broken out into a full-blown ace in his age-27 season. The righty now owns a 3.48 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 31.2% strikeout rate while allowing an 87th-percentile .206 expected batting average. He's given up more than three runs just twice since June 1st and is coming off a strong outing in which he gave up two hits and struck out nine in 6 1/3 innings of work.

Peralta squares off with a Cardinals lineup that has been decent against righties but isn't potent enough to scare us. Since the All-Star break, the Cardinals rank 11th in wOBA (.328) and 17th in ISO (.175). Those aren't bad numbers by any means, but St. Louis is in last place for a reason. There's no reason to fade such a hot pitcher tonight.

Someone I'm more than OK with fading is Wainwright. 'Waino has been dreadful in what is, in all likelihood, his last major league season. The 42-year-old is running a 7.95 ERA and 5.85 SIERA.

One look at his Baseball Savant page is all you need to understand truly how abysmal the former ace has been this season. He sits in the 1st percentile in expected batting average (.329), expected ERA (7.75) and strikeout rate (11.3%) -- all while allowing a brutal 11.7% barrel rate. While he has given up just a single run in two of his last three starts, he's also given up six-plus runs in four of his last seven.

While the Brewers aren't especially scary on offense, Milwaukee could be in for a big night at the dish. Against righties since the All-Star break, the Brewers rank just 24th in wOBA (.305) and 30th in ISO (.132), so they're far from a guarantee to produce tonight. However, they've managed to cover 1.5 runs in each of their previous 12 wins.

Assuming Peralta holds up his end of the bargain, I feel confident the Brewers will make that 13 in a row tonight.

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Padres -1.5 (-115)

We head to the West Coast next, honing in on the San Diego Padres to cover 1.5 runs while hosting the Colorado Rockies.

Colorado hasn't officially named a starting pitcher for tonight, but all signs point toward lefty Ty Blach toeing the rubber.

That's good news for the Padres.

Over the second half of the year, San Diego has absolutely shredded lefties. Since the All-Star break, the Padres rank second in wOBA (.367), sixth in ISO (.193), and second in wRC+ (137) in the split. Even more encouraging, San Diego has struck out at the fifth-lowest rate (18.6%) and walked at the seventh-highest rate (9.6%) over that span.

They should be salivating over the prospect of facing Ty Blach.

Blach has been brutal, to say the least, this season. While his 4.64 ERA is rough enough on its own, a 6.42 expected ERA suggests he's actually pitched worse than the results have indicated. Blach hardly strikes anyone out (13.5% K rate) and gives up an ugly 43.9% hard-hit rate. To make matters worse, Blach is coming off his worst three-game stretch of the season, giving up 12 runs and 26 hits across his last 16 innings.

On the opposite side, the Padres trot out Michael Wacha who is wrapping up a quietly stellar season.

Wacha has pitched to a 3.43 ERA this season. While his 4.65 expected ERA is less impressive, he's held opposing hitters to a 35.3% hard-hit rate. Yes, Wacha is coming off a string of rough starts, but he's back at Petco Park -- a place he's dominated this season. He's sporting a 2.55 ERA at home (compared to a 4.66 ERA on the road) and hasn't given up more than 3 runs at home since April.

Wacha should thrive tonight against a Rockies lineup that has struggled versus righties over the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Colorado ranks just 22nd in wOBA (.308), 20th in ISO (.165), and 30th in wRC+ (77) in the split. In general, they've struggled away from Coors Field, ranking in the bottom three in wOBA (.284), ISO (.132), and wRC+ (75).

The Padres have won five of their last six games and covered 1.5 runs in all five of those wins. With San Diego facing a weak offense at home, I'm expecting more of the same tonight.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

Under 4.5 F5 (-148)

We stay on the West Coast for our final play of the day -- where I like the first five innings of the Seattle Mariners-Oakland Athletics matchup to go under 4.5 runs.

This largely has to do with the starting pitching matchup as both Bryan Woo and JP Sears have strong underlying numbers to support quality starts tonight.

For Seattle, Woo has enjoyed an up-and-down rookie season. He got off to a hot start in June but a brutal July sent his ERA skyrocketing. However, he's calmed down over the last two months.

Over his last five starts, Woo has given up more than two runs just once. He tossed 6.0 scoreless innings against Oakland just three weeks ago and has the ability to do something similar tonight. For the season, Woo boasts a solid 4.09 SIERA to go along with a 24.1% strikeout rate. His batted-ball data is borderline elite, as opposing hitters have a measly 5.7% barrel rate (81st percentile) and 31.6% hard-hit rate (92nd percentile) off him.

He shouldn't face any early trouble against an A's lineup that ranks just 23rd in wOBA (.307) and 18th in wRC+ (98) against right-handed pitchers since the All-Star break.

On the opposite side, Oakland's Sears has really flashed in his first full MLB season. Though he sports a 4.45 ERA, he's produced nine quality starts and has given up just three runs across his last three outings. Sears has seen this Mariners lineup twice in 2023 and allowed only a single run in 12 innings of work.

While the Mariners have hit southpaws well over the latter half of the season, their success is not without some asterisks. Since the All-Star break, Seattle ranks seventh in wOBA (.345) and fifth in wRC+ (125) against left-handed pitchers. That said, they also boast the highest strikeout rate (27.4%) and the 12th-lowest ISO (.155) in that split. Most concerning is their absurd, unsustainable .380 BABIP -- nearly .050 points higher than the next-closest team's.

I don't want anything to do with the game-long total given Oakland's horrific bullpen, but I trust both young arms to limit the damage through the first five innings.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.