MLB Betting Guide for Friday 8/25/23: Supporting Two Improving Offenses in Seattle

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Rays -0.5 in F5 Innings (+110)

One of the teams can hit righties, and the other team can't. That should -- in my mind -- propel the Tampa Bay Rays to at least a one-run cushion through five.

We've taken advantage of the New York Yankees' splits in consecutive days where they crush lefties, but against righties, their right-hand-dominant lineup tumbles down the power rankings. In the past 30 days, New York has just an 80 wRC+ against right-handers (second-worst in MLB) with a gigantic 26.6% strikeout rate. In this same split and period, Tampa Bay has a 137 wRC+ (second-best in MLB) and a reduced 23.7% strikeout rate.

Therefore, you'd have to feel considerably better about Gerrit Cole than you do Zach Eflin to back the Yanks, and I'm just not there. Cole's 3.79 expected ERA (xERA) is actually higher than Eflin's (2.99), and Eflin has done a better job limiting hard contact with a 34.9% hard-hit rate allowed to Cole's 39.3% rate. Other than one getting an All-Star nod and in Cy Young Award contention, you could make a pointed case for Eflin as having the better 2023 season.

We'll five and dive with this bet when the Yankees' elite bullpen (4.07 xFIP) has comfortably outpaced Tampa Bay's (4.37) all season.

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 9.0 (-102)

The pitching in this game is so volatile that I would be stunned if one of today's starters didn't have a rough go of it.

The Cincinnati Reds will send Hunter Greene to the bump, and while Greene certainly has a strikeout rate (30.1%) that will turn heads, he's been a volatile bet to keep runs off the board in 2023. In his first start back from injury, he surrendered five homers to the Toronto Blue Jays, something that can happen when you allow a 48.0% flyball rate and 47.2% hard-hit rate. In the past 30 days, Toronto has a lower OPS against righties (.667) than Arizona (.681), so I'm not even sure this weak matchup on paper is weak enough.

On the other side, we'll see if top prospect Brandon Pfaadt can keep it rolling for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pfaadt's 3.76 xFIP this month is his lowest of the season, and prospects make leaps, but some of his season-long metrics do indicate that worse days could be ahead. Pfaadt's 5.12 xERA is still terrible overall, and he's got similar issues with flyball rate (43.5%) and hard-hit rate (45.3%) to Greene's.

A full-game over is likely the side here given Cincinnati's bullpen (4.74 xFIP this season) has been pretty dismal for much of the season. It's a bit surprising this total is so low given Arizona has one of the better hitter's parks in baseball, but it could be because these two talented offenses have slumped recently.

Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners

Over 8.0 (-110)

The Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners haven't been particularly strong against righties all season, but they're hot now.

In the past 30 days, Seattle is third in baseball with a 131 wRC+ against right-handers, and Kansas City ranks sixth (122 wRC+) in that category. The question becomes if today's starters are vulnerable enough to take advantage of this, and it appears they could be.

Bryce Miller has truly rode the roller coaster in his rookie campaign for the Mariners, amassing a 4.30 xERA overall. Miller, though, has benefitted from a minuscule 9.8% HR/FB ratio when he's ceding a ball in the air 48.2% of at-bats. That's especially true when his hard-hit rate allowed (42.8%) is also higher than you'd like to see.

On the other side, there's not much mystery that Brady Singer is struggling. Singer's 4.79 xERA isn't the worst mark you'll see, but his 49.2% hard-hit rate allowed is a first-percentile outlier of getting crushed. A 30.9% flyball rate is his saving grace to avoid the longball, but this is a dangerous lineup at the moment to face when giving up that much hard contact.

Like in Arizona, we'll roll the dice on a potential late cash of this one due to a bad bullpen. Kansas City's bullpen has been sparked for a 5.15 xFIP during the past month of play.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.