Hungarian Grand Prix Simulations: What Should We Expect From Daniel Ricciardo?

As if the British Grand Prix didn't bring us enough storylines with McLaren surging back to life, the Hungarian Grand Prix is bringing the heat, as well.

Danny Ric is back, baby.

Daniel Ricciardo will make his 2023 debut after news last week that he would replace Nyck de Vries at AlphaTauri, effective immediately.

It's Ricciardo's first race in a new car, and it's a car that has been aggressively booty to open the year, so it's worth asking: what's a realistic expectation for Ricciardo on Sunday?

I've run simulations for the race prior to practice and qualifying in order to attempt to answer that. It's worth noting, though, that this is based entirely on an assumption of Ricciardo's speed based on the car's production and his assumed skill level. That means there's more volatility, and we should proceed with a bit more caution when looking at the data.

Here's what my model is saying about the field prior to Free Practice 1 on Friday.

As you can see, the model is low on Ricciardo to start, and I think that's fair.

Ricciardo hasn't had proper seat time yet while his teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, has. Additionally, the last time we saw Ricciardo, he struggled pretty mightily. I do think Ricciardo will slide up as time goes on (and that the model is too high on Tsunoda now), but for this week, specifically, I'm fine keeping optimism in check.

The other noteworthy team in the sims is McLaren. As referenced before, they had a banger showing at Silverstone, taking home a runner-up for Lando Norris and a fourth for Oscar Piastri. I think the model is too low on them.

The tough part of modeling Formula 1 is knowing how much weight to put in a single race when upgrades were involved. Should we abandon everything that happened before, or is lingering skepticism warranted?

To me, it's somewhere in the middle. At Silverstone, Norris and Piastri had the second- and third-best median lap times, respectively, so they weren't flukes. But we also don't know if those upgrades will translate as well to the Hungaroring as they did to Silverstone.

The takeaway here is that we should proceed with caution around other mid-pack teams.

If you compare the podium and top-six odds in the table above to those in the betting market, it'll look like the market is undervaluing Pierre Gasly, Esteban Ocon, and Tsunoda. But with McLaren being too low in the model -- at least in my eyes -- you've got two drivers who had been in that tier previously likely above it. Thus, the sims are overstating the potential of those other drivers.

Ideally, the model will catch up after we have another race with the improved McLarens. But at least for now, we should mentally upgrade them and downgrade other mid-pack teams to account for what I think is an error within the model.

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