How Many Passing Yards Will Caleb Williams Throw for in His Rookie Season?

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
How Many Passing Yards Will Caleb Williams Throw for in His Rookie Season?

The 2024 NFL Draft kicks off tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET, and we all know who the Chicago Bears have their sights set on with the number one overall pick.

Caleb Williams owns -50000 odds (per FanDuel Sportsbook) to be selected first overall, making him one of the most hyped draft prospects in years.

The Bears have had a productive offseason and also own the ninth overall pick. Williams will be armed with receiving targets such as D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, so it should be a fun season for Chicago fans.

Williams has +350 odds (shortest) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year while the Bears are -105 to make the playoffs after a tough go of it in the 2023-2024 season.

FanDuel Sportsbook currently has Williams' total passing yards for the 2024-2025 season set at O/U 3,375.5 yards. Getting in on this could be an exciting way to track his rookie season, so let's figure out which side we should back.

Caleb Williams Prop Bets

Caleb Williams 2024 Regular Season Passing Yards

Best Bet: Over 3,375.5 (-116)

We've seen a rookie signal-caller throw for at least 3,641 yards in five of the last six seasons, so it's not hard to envision Williams surpassing the 3,375.5-yard mark in his freshman campaign.

C.J. Stroud was the most recent QB to hit this feat. He went haywire for the Houston Texans last year, throwing for a towering 4,108 yards and immediately taking reign as one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Trevor Lawrence (3,641 yards), Justin Herbert (4,336 yards), Kyler Murray (3,722 yards), and Baker Mayfield (3,725 yards) round out the list of recent rookie QBs who made an immediate impact in the air.

In the last six seasons, the 2022 NFL draft class was the lone instance in which all newcomers failed to exceed 3,375.5 passing yards in their rookie season, and it's easy to see why.

Just one quarterback was selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft (Kenny Pickett), while each of the other five aforementioned classes saw a minimum of three quarterbacks drafted on the first night.

A whopping six quarterbacks (Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix) are favored to be taken in the first round of the 2024 draft, which hasn't happened since the 1983 draft.

This quarterback class is absolutely loaded. The fact that Williams has long been the chalk to be selected with the first overall pick speaks volumes, and his time as a USC Trojan indicates that he is primed to exceed 3,375.5 passing yards in his first year as a Bear.

In Williams' 2022 Heisman-winning season, he totaled 4,537 passing yards (third-most) off of just 500 pass attempts, good for the most yards per attempt among eligible QBs that season. He threw for 3,633 yards off 388 attempts last season.

While the translation from college football to NFL numbers isn't smooth, I should note that Williams threw more total passing yards and yards per pass attempt in his final two college seasons than any of the above-listed NFL QBs (Stroud, Lawrence, Herbert, and Murray) with the exception of Mayfield.

Chicago is armed with receiving studs such as Moore and Allen and could make a go at Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick (+410 odds to be selected ninth; second-shortest).

In the 2023-2024 NFL season, 16 quarterbacks eclipsed 3,375.5 total passing yards. The Bears own one of the league's top offensive lines and have armed Williams with awesome receiving threats, so I'd look for him to join this list in his rookie bid.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.