Home Run Props Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Picks and Predictions for Thursday 4/23/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Mickey Moniak (+350)
• Corbin Carroll (+470)
• Juan Soto (+310)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Bets and Props

Mickey Moniak to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Padres at Rockies, 3:10 p.m. ET

Mickey Moniak is at home versus right-hander Matt Waldron, and that makes him an enticing homer pick.

Moniak broke out last year, launching 24 home runs and recording a .348 wOBA in his first year with the Colorado Rockies. He's upped it a notch or two so far in 2026, posting a .410 wOBA with six long balls. His fly-ball rate is a lofty 57.1%, and he's mashing at home, putting up a .443 wOBA at Coors.

Waldron has thrown only 8.1 MLB innings since the start of 2025, spending nearly all of last season in the minors -- where he had a meh 20.7% K rate. He's in a rough spot today at Coors, and back in 2024 -- Waldron's last sizable stint in the bigs -- lefties tagged him for a 44.1% fly-ball rate.

Corbin Carroll to Hit a Home Run (+470)

White Sox at Diamondbacks, 3:40 p.m. ET

Davis Martin is on the bump for the Chicago White Sox, and that's good news for the Arizona Diamondbacks' left-handed hitters.

Enter Corbin Carroll.

Carroll is red-hot right now, amassing a gaudy .440 wOBA. He registered a .384 wOBA, 41.9% hard-hit rate and 48.7% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage last year. Of his 31 dingers, 23 came with the platoon advantage.

A year ago, Martin allowed 1.51 homers per nine to lefty bats while recording a lowly 15.3% K rate in the split. He's a superb matchup for Carroll, and Chicago's bullpen -- a group that is third to last in reliever xFIP -- should keep the good times rolling for Carroll once Martin exits.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Twins at Mets, 7:11 p.m. ET

Joe Ryan is getting the ball for the Minnesota Twins. Ryan is a quality pitcher who misses a lot of bats, but when the opposition makes contact, it's usually loud.

So far in 2026, Ryan is allowing a 51.4% fly-ball rate. He's surrendered 1.42 homers per nine since the start of 2023, and left-handed bats got to him for a .320 wOBA and 1.68 jacks per nine last season.

Juan Soto mashes in any split, and he nuked righties for a .416 wOBA and 48.5% hard-hit rate in 2025, with 32 of his 43 tanks coming with the platoon advantage.

Among the night games today, Soto is my favorite home run pick.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.