Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Wednesday, August 26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ben Rice (+330)
• Freddie Freeman (+500)
• Trevor Larnach (+560)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props, Best Bets Today

Home Run Prediction: Ben Rice (+330)

Astros at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

Ben Rice has been outstanding against right-handed pitchers this season, and I like these odds on him to put one in the seats tonight at Yankee Stadium in a matchup with Peter Lambert.

With the platoon advantage in 2026, Rice has raked, amassing a .386 wOBA, 45.0% hard-hit rate and 43.6% fly-ball rate. He’s got 34 home runs overall, and 20 of those have come versus RHPs. He’s got a 46.5% fly-ball rate at home, compared to a 35.8% fly-ball rate on the road, so it seems like he’s trying to take advantage of the short porch in the Bronx.

Lambert‘s results have been good this year (3.68 ERA), but some of the underlying numbers (4.43 xFIP) aren’t so hot. He’s allowed a 46.4% fly-ball rate overall and is fresh off a start against the Los Angeles Angels where he was tagged for nine earned runs in 3.2 innings.

After Lambert leaves the game, Rice will face a Houston Astros bullpen that has surrendered the sixth-most HRs per nine this campaign (1.25).

Home Run Prediction: Freddie Freeman (+500)

Dodgers at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

Atlanta Braves RHP AJ Smith-Shawver is an intriguing young hurler, but he’s still knocking off the rust after a long layoff and has had trouble with lefty bats in his career, giving up 1.49 homers per nine in the split.

That puts me on Freddie Freeman to go yard today.

Smith-Shawver has let in six earned runs in 8.2 frames this year in the bigs, and Freeman can take advantage. Freeman has a .373 expected wOBA this season in addition to a 41.3% hard-hit rate with the platoon advantage. Of his 15 long-balls, 11 have been versus RHPs. He’s also been much more productive on the road (.411 wOBA) than at home (.309 wOBA).

Home Run Prediction: Trevor Larnach (+560)

Twins at Athletics, 9:06 p.m. ET

While Trevor Larnach is a pinch-hit risk if he sees a lefty later in the game, I like his matchup with A’s starter JT Ginn, and I think said pinch-hit risk may be baked into the market a little too much.

Ginn owns a career-worst 4.36 SIERA this year, and his K rate dips to 17.9% at home, compared to 24.2% on the road. He’s also likely to eventually give up more tanks as his homer-to-fly-ball rate of 10.4% is well below his 18.8% clip from across the past two seasons.

Larnach is quietly a pretty solid hitter, putting up a 42.4% fly-ball rate and .336 wOBA. He’s got 10 dingers, eight of which have come with the platoon advantage. He’s produced a .348 wOBA against RHPs.

Once Ginn departs, Larnach will see an Athletics bullpen that holds the sixth-worst xFIP (4.56) over the past 30 days.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.