Home Run Props Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Dinger Tuesday (Aug. 18)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Joshua Baez (+400)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. (+340)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. (+370)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props Today: MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks

Home Run Prediction: Joshua Baez (+400)

Cardinals at Cubs, 6:41 p.m. ET

Rookie sensation Joshua Baez checks a few boxes today.

Baez’s three-homer game announced him to the MLB world, and while he set himself an impossible pace to maintain, Baez has a gaudy track record in the minors. Prior to getting the call, Baez had hit 34 jacks in Triple-A this season, and in 2025, he popped 16 dingers in 331 plate appearances in Double-A.

This is a guy with massive power, and he’s playing today in Great American Ball Park — one of the best venues for offense — against lefty Andrew Abbott.

Abbott is having a rough year, producing a 5.06 SIERA and 17.6% K rate. His strikeout rate is only 14.3% against righty bats, and that’s a big deal for Baez, who had a 29.5% K rate in Triple-A.

Once Abbott leaves the game, Baez will see a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that has the third-worst xFIP this year.

With top-notch power and in a nice matchup at a homer-friendly park, Baez can leave the yard again today.

Home Run Prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+340)

Padres at Mets, 7:11 p.m. ET

Fernando Tatis Jr. is my favorite HR pick tonight.

Tatis is in Queens to take on southpaw Zac Thornton. The New York Mets’ left-hander has struggled to a 4.71 SIERA and 16.4% strikeout rate through his first 45.1 innings. Righties have a 41.0% fly-ball rate against him.

Tatis has only 13 long-balls on the season. However, his .365 expected wOBA is right in line with his expected wOBA from 2025 (.370), and he’s red-hot in the second half, racking up a .407 wOBA and 43.2% hard-hit rate in the split. He’s also got a .377 wOBA with the platoon advantage this season.

Once Thornton departs, the good matchups can keep coming for Tatis as the Mets‘ bullpen has allowed the 11th-most homers per nine this campaign.

Home Run Prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+370)

Braves at Twins, 7:41 p.m. ET

After posting promising numbers the past two seasons, Zebby Matthews has taken a step back in 2026, having a hard time missing bats (9.3% swinging-strike rate) and giving up a lot of tanks (1.78 HRs per nine).

Enter Ronald Acuna Jr.

Matthews has permitted 1.85 homers per nine to right-handed hitters, and he’s surrendered at least one jack in eight of his past nine appearances.

Acuna’s season is similar to Tatis’. While he’s hit just 13 home runs, Acuna’s .370 expected wOBA looks great, and he’s cooking in the second half, going deep six times through 85 plate appearances.

There’s a slight breeze blowing out today in Minny, and I like Acuna in this matchup.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.