MLB

Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 4/3/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Home Run Prop Bets

Will Smith To Hit a Home Run (+480)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best offense in the MLB and are always capable of posting multiple home runs.

When it comes to the Dodgers' lineup, there are plenty of big names to consider but I'm turning to Will Smith for a dinger tonight.

He has a good matchup against Kyle Harrison, who is a young and largely unproven pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.

Last season, Harrison allowed 1.71 HR/9, 4.10 xFIP, 58.7% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. There's some clear potential for fly balls tonight and it puts Smith in a great spot for his first home run of the season.

In 2023, Smith ended with a 116 wRC+, .342 wOBA, .207 ISO, 53.9% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. It's a great matchup overall, so I'll add Smith To Record an RBI (+145), too.

Oneil Cruz To Hit a Home Run (+320)

Next up, let's look to Oneil Cruz for a homer tonight.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are off to a hot start this season and can continue that tonight versus the Washington Nationals, who will have Trevor Williams on the mound. The Pirates are sporting a 4.89 implied run and can certainly hit that thanks to the matchup against Williams.

Last season, Williams allowed a .371 wOBA, 5.75 xFIP, 1.74 HR/9, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 31.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Willams can get hit early and often. That puts several of the Pirates' hitters in a good spot, but Cruz is my favorite tonight.

Cruz only played nine games last year due to an injury, so we'll look back at his stats from 2022. That year, Cruz ended with a 130 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .248 ISO, 35.0% fly-ball rate, 39.9% hard-contact, and 24.6% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers.

He has legit power, and this is a juicy matchup, so I'll add Cruz To Record an RBI (+125), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.