Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 5/2/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+390)

With plenty of power, Pete Alonso is always a threat for a home run.

Alonso has been one of the best power hitters in the league for several years, and anytime we see him at +390, he's worth targeting.

He's up against Ben Brown, who is a very young and unproven pitcher for the Chicago Cubs. This is Brown's first year in MLB, and he has only a 23.0 inning sample size to look at, so while things may change for him, this is what we have to go with for now.

This season, Brown has allowed a .391 SLG, 1.32 HR/9, 44.4% fly-ball rate, and 48.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are super solid numbers to attack for a hitter, and with a bit of wind blowing out to center at Citi Field, it's a good spot to target.

Last season, Alonso crushed righties with a 118 wRC+, .282 ISO, .341 wOBA, 48.0% fly-ball rate, and 34.6% hard-contact rate. All good news for this matchup, so I'll add Alonso To Record an RBI (+135), too.

Ryan Mountcastle To Hit a Home Run (+450)

Another great matchup for a homer lies with Ryan Mountcastle of the Baltimore Orioles.

Looking at expected stats for hitters is always a bit tough, especially early in the season, but it can point us in the right direction.

According to Baseball Savant, Mountcastle has 5.7 Expected Home Runs this season (xHR) but only four actual home runs. That is a -1.7 differential between HR and xHR, which is the eighth-highest in the league.

This means Mountcastle has been a bit unlucky in terms of results but looks strong at the plate overall. He comes in with a 158 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .229 ISO, 53.8% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. That's some legit power, and it puts him in a great spot against Carlos Rodon.

Rodon comes in allowing a .323 SLG, 4.84 xFIP, 0.96 HR/9, and a massive 53.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. With hot hitting weather in Baltimore today, Mountcastle has a chance to see the ball fly against Rodon.

With that said, I'll add Mountcastle To Record an RBI (+140), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.