Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 4/25/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Mitch Haniger To Hit a Home Run (+330)

The Seattle Mariners have a 4.33 implied run total today and could get a few long balls going against the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers will have Andrew Heaney on the bump today, a pitcher we love to target for some homers. Last season, Heaney allowed .448 SLG, 4.44 xFIP, 1.64 HR/9, 45.3% fly-ball rate, and 33.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

That high fly-ball rate is always a dangerous spot for pitchers, and it has continued this season for Heaney with a 57.1% fly-ball rate versus righties but comes from a smaller sample size.

This brings me to Mitch Haniger, who has dealt with some injuries over the past few years and hasn't played more than 61 games in the last two seasons. However, he has strong career numbers against lefties with a 128 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .211 ISO, 35.7% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate.

Heaney struggles with fly balls and Haniger can certainly get one in the air today.

Ryan Jeffers To Hit a Home Run (+450)

Next up, we turn to the Minnesota Twins, who are at home to take on the lowly Chicago White Sox.

A good matchup against Michael Soroka is worth targeting today for some homers and it leads me to Ryan Jeffers.

This season, Jeffers is off to a good start with a 142 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .200 ISO, 40.0% hard-contact rate, and 30.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's got solid power and is up against Soroka, who simply doesn't have it all together on the mound.

After missing two seasons due to injuries, Soroka wasn't able to get his footing last year and that has carried over to start this season. So far, Soroka has allowed a .520 SLG, .379 wOBA, 5.12 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 37.8% hard-contact rate, and 33.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.

It's a rough set of stats for Soroka but it puts Jeffers and the Twins in a favorable matchup today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.