Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday, June 4, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Brent Rooker (+260)
• Michael Busch (+350)
• Oneil Cruz (+420)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+260)

A's at Cubs, 8:06 p.m. ET

My first two dinger picks for tonight come from the same game as Thursday's A's-Chicago Cubs clash at Wrigley Field features 12 MPH wind blowing straight out.

Shota Imanaga, a southpaw, is throwing for Chicago, and that puts Brent Rooker in a good spot.

Against lefties, Rooker owns a 39.1% hard-hit rate and 59.5% fly-ball rate. He ended 2025 with a .375 wOBA in the split.

Imanaga is a good pitcher, but he's not nearly as tough on righties (22.3% K rate and 1.60 HRs per nine) as he is on left-handers (29.3% K rate). He's also permitted 1.74 jacks per nine at home this season and let up 2.52 homers per nine in May.

Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+350)

A's at Cubs, 8:06 p.m. ET

On the flip side of tonight's Wrigley affair, the Cubs take on A's righty J.T. Ginn.

Ginn has pitched to a 4.28 SIERA and career-low 10.8% swinging-strike rate so far in 2026. Lefties have tagged him for a .320 wOBA and 1.14 homers per nine. He has four or fewer Ks in three of his last four starts.

In his breakout season a year ago, Busch both killed it at home (.366 wOBA) and against RHPs (.385 wOBA). Of his 34 bombs, 30 came with the platoon advantage. He's got a .362 wOBA and 44.8% fly-ball rate versus righties this season.

After Ginn departs, Busch's good matchups can continue as the Athletics' relievers have pitched to the 10th-worst xFIP.

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Pirates at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Kai-Wei Teng is getting great results, posting a 2.57 ERA through 42 frames, but he's getting a little lucky. His FIP is 4.10, and Teng is fortunate to have a 25.7% K rate when his swinging-strike rate is only 10.9%. He's also having a difficult time with left-handed hitters, surrendering a .341 wOBA in the split along with 1.80 homers per nine.

Enter Cruz.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' slugger has top-end raw power and has already launched 14 home runs this year. He's at his best against RHPs, hitting 10 of his 14 long-balls in the split.

Cruz has homered three times over his last 23 plate appearances, and I like him to stay hot today.

As a boost, the Houston Astros' bullpen has registered the second-worst xFIP.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.