FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4 Sunday Night (Chiefs at Jets)

It's easy to see why the Kansas City Chiefs drew so much attention this week. It's because they enter Week 4 off 41-10 a drubbing of the Chicago Bears, right? Obviously, the Chiefs' newest fan adds a bit of intrigue to this primetime showdown in the Big Apple. Can K.C. keep the good times rolling this week, or will the New York Jets finally find some offensive success with Zach Wilson at quarterback?

According to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs are an 8.5-point favorite in this one, and its projected total is 41.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

I'm contractually obligated to start this section with Patrick Mahomes ($18,000), whose salary is $3,000 clear of any player and should be the most popular multiplier choice on the slate.

The obvious path to failure for Mahomes in this one is a Jets D that we perceive to be pretty strong, but they're actually the 10th-weakest pass defense in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings to begin the year. With a top-five combination of pace and pass rate over expectation, Andy Reid is still putting the bulk of the work on the reigning league MVP in his offense. He's especially appealing once we get to the pretty grotesque market shares behind him.

Of course, Taylor's guy is next in line. Travis Kelce ($15,000) comfortably leads K.C. in target share (22.4%) despite the reduced snap count to begin a season that started with a knee issue. While he's yet to be a full-time player, he's clearly Mahomes' top target and the Jets are surrendering the ninth-most adjusted FanDuel points per target to tight ends. I'd be a bit surprised if he didn't score.

While likely not turning to Zach Wilson ($12,500) on the other side, truly contrarian builds work in this format all the time, and two Jets do have a path to get it done. Garrett Wilson ($13,500) has the stronger case, but Breece Hall ($13,000) isn't totally out of the mix.

Garrett (not Zach) has been the engine of the passing game. He's held a 31.8% target share, good for 7.3 looks per game. Wilson housed long touchdowns in back-to-back weeks against two top-10 pass defenses (per numberFire's ranks), but he'd have to beat a third to score again on Sunday. According to the model, the Chiefs are the fourth-best pass defense, but volume is volume.

As for Hall, you'd assume his looming leap would arrive in Week 4. Breece played 29 snaps last week to just 16 for Dalvin Cook ($10,500) as that gap continues to widen in his favor each week. Still, we've yet to really see tangible success from Gang Green's offense, and another solid reason to fade Hall at MVP is the fact he's yet to record a red zone touch this year. Cook has five.

Flex Breakdown

If the Jets surprise with offensive competence, you'd have to think it's on the ground. K.C. is just numberFire's 16th-ranked rush defense, so that appears to be the path of least resistance. If early success happens there, it's possible both Hall and Cook receive a ton of work, and as mentioned, Dalvin has gotten the goal-line work so far. Personally, they're both flex viable.

Zach Wilson is also more palatable away from the multiplier, and I think the key reason to consider him would be the upside of his legs in a low-scoring game. He totaled 36 rushing yards in Week 2 and could score. Contrarian quarterbacks are often a solid spot to be in single-game tournaments, but Zach is completing 52.4% of his passes and has yet to break 10 FanDuel points. It's not likely he explodes.

As usual, the Chiefs' running backs are a headache that involve some luck. Isiah Pacheco ($12,000) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($8,500) split 30 carries and 2 rushing touchdowns evenly last week, and Pacheco added 3 targets. At salary, that would favor CEH -- though less efficient -- in a similar projected game script. Jerick McKinnon ($10,000) added two touchdowns on five touches; I don't think I need to explain that's not very sustainable.

Their wideouts are similar. Skyy Moore ($9,500) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,000) tied for the team lead with 23 routes last week. Especially considering salary, MVS' 16.1 average depth of target (aDoT) means he can pay off with one long score in a single-game setting. Justin Watson ($8,000) and Rashee Rice ($7,500) ran 20 routes, which continued the upward trajectory for Rice as their second-round pick from May. I'd use MVS and Rice from this group, personally.

New York's passing offense is a black hole, so while Allen Lazard ($7,500), Tyler Conklin ($7,000), and Randall Cobb ($7,000) all played at least 70.0% of the snaps last week, no one exceeded five inefficient targets. They're available if you're projecting a renaissance.

Given the low total, I think both defenses are actually in play -- even if the Jets D/ST ($9,000) seems a bit crazy against Mahomes. They lead the NFL in pressure rate (38%), so a turnover to the house can't be a total surprise, and Xavier Gipson ($5,500) showed he's quite the return man in the opener. The Kansas City D/ST ($11,000) has a massive salary because they've topped double digits in consecutive contests, and Wilson's Jets have ceded the fifth-most FanDuel points to opposing defenses.

In that same vein, get used to Greg Zuerlein ($9,500) in single-game contests featuring New York. The J-E-T-S settle for T-H-R-E-E at the fourth-highest rate in the league (40.0% of red zone trips). Of course, Harrison Butker ($9,000) is also a bit of security to nab some of the points from this K.C. offense that can both light it up and spread it around often.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.