FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 8/8/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel.

Statistics are via FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.

Top Options

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros ($10,800)

Leading off, Framber Valdez carries a monster salary but is an established ace and one of the top options of the night. The lefty has a tough matchup with the Baltimore Orioles but is coming off his most dominant start of the season, paving the way for another stellar start tonight.

While the Orioles may own the best record in the American League, they've been merely so-so against left-handed pitchers -- ranking 13th in wOBA (.328), 15th in slugging (.423), and 12th in hard-hit rate (33.2%).

Valdez, meanwhile, is coming off a no-hitter against the Cleveland Guardians that saw him drop 58 FanDuel points. It was a much-needed rebound for the Houston Astros' ace after he had given up at least four runs in four of his previous five outings.

While his skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is up slightly this season, his 3.44 mark still ranks seventh league-wide while his strikeout rate is up to a career-best 26.0%.

Still, Valdez's bread and butter is his ability to generate ground balls. This season, he ranks fourth with a 54.0% ground ball rate. As a result, he's allowed the fourth-lowest percentage of fly balls (24.8%).

numberFire projects Valdez for 36.8 FanDuel points tonight. That's their highest projection of the slate by 3.5 points, making Framber Valdez a clear top option despite a relatively difficult matchup.

Max Scherzer, Texas Rangers ($10,500)

Perhaps the only other pitcher who can rival Valdez's upside tonight is Max Scherzer. "Mad Max" dropped a 46-point gem in his Texas Rangers debut and now gets a mouth-watering matchup with the Oakland Athletics.

Scherzer has been inconsistent in his age-39 season, and he's currently sporting the worst SIERA (3.75) and HR/9 (1.82) of his career. With his strikeout rate (27.7%) down to its lowest mark since 2011 and his barrel rate (9.5%) the highest since Statcast began tracking in 2015, it's clear Scherzer isn't the same pitcher he used to be.

So what?

Even with his numbers down across the board, Scherzer still ranks 9th in xERA (3.52) and 11th in strikeout rate while giving up the 10th-highest rate of soft contact (17.7%) in the league. Scherzer has taken a small step back, but he remains an elite pitcher and top option in most DFS slates.

That's especially true when he gets a matchup like Oakland.

The A's have been one of the worst offenses in baseball all year long and that's held true of late.

In addition to striking out at the third-highest rate (25.2%) against righties, Oakland has averaged just 3.67 runs per game since the All-Star break -- the second-worst mark in baseball. They've registered a measly .313 wOBA over that span and are generating hard contact at a below-average rate (33.7%).

numberFire projects Scherzer for 31.6 FanDuel points tonight -- their third-highest projection of the slate. Considering Oakland has the lowest implied team total (3.25) of the slate, that projection could be Scherzer's floor.

He's easily a top option in DFS tonight.

Value Plays

Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers ($8,500)

It's not every day that Julio Urias commands a salary south of $9,000. Yet, despite coming off a 36-point outing in his most recent start, he's down to $8,500 tonight.

Part of that is the matchup. On paper, the Arizona Diamondbacks don't look like a cakewalk. In addition to averaging the 11th-most runs per game, they feature a number of hitters in the midst of career years such Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, and Ketel Marte.

However, Arizona has regressed mightily over the second half of the year. Since the All-Star break, the D-backs have gone 5-17 and averaged just 3.77 runs per game -- both second-worst in all of baseball.

While they sit in the bottom half of the league in wOBA against left-handed pitchers (.313) for the season, they've been even worse in that split since the All-Star break with a .291 wOBA and .113 isolated power (ISO) -- ranking 24th in both metrics.

That bodes well for Urias who, despite an uptick in SIERA (4.11) and a downtick in strikeout rate (22.8%), has pitched well of late. He's eclipsed 28 FanDuel points in four of his last five outings and cracked the 45-point threshold twice over that span.

He's shown the potential to have top-end production -- not only this season but throughout his career. At his current salary, you're getting a ton of potential value considering how lifeless the Diamondbacks' lineup has looked of late.

Wade Miley, Milwaukee Brewers ($8,300)

If the Colorado Rockies are facing a lefty, go get that lefty in your DFS lineup.

The Rockies have been one of the absolute worst offenses in baseball when matched up with a left-handed pitcher. In that split, they hold the 2nd-lowest wOBA (.293), highest strikeout rate (27.2%), and 10th-lowest HR/FB rate (10.6%) despite playing half their games at Coors Field.

They've been even more strikeout-prone since the All-Star break, leading the league with a 31.1% strikeout rate against lefties. In general, they've struggled to generate offense over that span, ranking 19th with 4.14 runs per game.

Milwaukee Brewers southpaw Wade Miley is the lucky lefty with the privilege of facing off against Colorado tonight. Miley is outperforming his expected stats, and his 3.01 ERA is unsustainable, but a 4.85 SIERA isn't atrocious, and it's worth noting the sinkerballer has outperformed his xERA in four of the past five seasons.

While his strikeout rate (17.5%) isn't anything special, he did sit down 5 hitters in 4.0 innings of work during his first start since returning from the IL.

While his lack of dominant strikeout stuff caps his upside, Miley has averaged 25.4 FanDuel points per game this season and owns a pair of 50-point outings.

He may not single-handily propel your DFS lineup to the top of the leaderboard, but at his current salary with the Rockies having the second-lowest implied team total (3.57) of the night, Miley is a safe option for those wanting to focus on hitters.

Honorable Mentions

Both Tanner Bibee ($9,700) and Logan Gilbert ($9,500) have pitched well of late and carry modest salaries, but suspect matchups put them in limbo. You'd be better off either ponying up for one of the top options or dropping down and snagging a value play. Of the two, Bibee is more appealing considering the 61-point bomb fellow rookie Gavin Williams dropped on the Toronto Blue Jays last night. However, Gilbert does own the second-highest numberFire projection (33.3) of the slate.

Brady Singer ($9,000) kinda, maybe, might have figured it out? He still pitches for the Kansas City Royals, and that 4.39 SIERA isn't pretty, but with 30-plus FanDuel points in six of his last seven outings, you could do a lot worse than Singer against a Boston Red Sox lineup that's taken a step back since the All-Star break.

If you went into a coma in the middle of May and just woke up to play some DFS, you're probably salivating over Mitch Keller ($8,800) salaried under $9,000. For as good as Keller has been or could be, he owns a 9.97 ERA and a 19.6% strikeout rate in four starts since the All-Star break. With the Atlanta Braves in town, he's firmly a stay-away.

Lucas Giolito ($8,100) and Kutter Crawford ($7,900) are both fine options tonight. numberFire projects Giolito for 31.4 FanDuel points and Crawford for 29.8. At their salaries, that value is hard to beat -- though temper expectations. The San Francisco Giants hit righties hard, and the Kansas City Royals' offense has quietly been above-average since the break.

Grayson Rodriguez ($6,800) has a tough matchup against the Houston Astros, but he's pitched well since being called back up and is buried in the bargain bin. With at least 26 FanDuel points in each of his last three starts, G-Rod is a sneaky flier if you want to load up on hitters.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.