NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 4/1/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 4/1/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Monday's main slate on FanDuel features six games. For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Dejounte Murray ($10,500) -- Dejounte Murray is on an absolute heater. Over his last six games, Murray has averaged 28.3 points, 10.5 assists, and 58.2 FanDuel points per game (FPPG). He's played 39.3 minutes per game over that stretch and should see another heavy workload in tonight's bout with Chicago. Notably, the Bulls are down to 25th in defensive rating and have allowed the sixth-most FPPG to PGs over the last 15 games, per FantasyPros. He's well worth the slate-high salary.

Coby White ($7,000) -- The bad news is that Coby White cannot buy a basket right now. He's shooting under 38% over the last 10 games and is averaging just 28.8 FPPG over that stretch. The good news is that White's salary has dipped as a result, and he's in a nice bounce-back spot against Atlanta tonight. The Hawks are just 22nd in defensive rating and have given up the 11th-highest field goal percentage (47.9%) over the last 15 games. Buy low.

Jalen Suggs ($5,700) -- Defensive stalwart Jalen Suggs isn't always a great DFS option, but he's coming off a pair of 30-FP games and has a plus matchup with Portland tonight. The Blazers are bottom-10 in FPs allowed to both guard spots over the last 15 games, and they're down to 29th in defensive rating over that stretch. Add in their 16.7% turnover rate, and we could see Suggs -- with multiple steals in three straight -- provide ample value at a manageable salary.

Others to Consider

CJ McCollum ($8,400) -- C.J. McCollum has feasted with Brandon Ingram out, averaging 25 actual and 42.3 FanDuel points over the last five games. Notably, he's attempted 20 shots in four of the last five games -- something he'd done in just three of the previous 48 outings. McCollum should see plenty of work tonight as Phoenix-New Orleans has the slate's tightest spread (Pelicans -1.5) and second-highest total (223.5). CJ's 39.6-FP numberFire projection is the most among sub-$9K guards.

Alex Caruso ($6,000) -- Alex Caruso's ability to fill up the box score gives him a reliable floor on a nightly basis, but last night's outburst showed what can happen when his shot is falling. Caruso nailed 7 threes en route to 21 actual and 45.5 FanDuel points against Minnesota's top-rated D, and he's now exceeded 34 FPs in three of his last four games. He's a strong mid-range option with upside in a soft matchup versus Atlanta.

Wings

Top Plays

DeMar DeRozan ($8,600) -- A tight spread (Bulls -2.5) and solid total (221.5) between two struggling defenses is a tasty recipe for DFS. With Atlanta allowing the fifth-most FPPG to SFs on the year, the immortal DeMar DeRozan is in a nice spot. DeMar has been running hot of late, putting up 40 FPs in five straight and averaging 46.7 FPPG over that span. numberFire projects him for 41.6 FPs while his points prop is set at 25.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Trey Murphy ($6,700) -- Trey Murphy III has played 38 minutes in three straight games and is now averaging 34.8 minutes and 31.4 FPPG with Brandon Ingram sidelined, per RotoGrinders CourtIQ. Phoenix has quietly given up the fourth-most FPPG to SFs over the last 15 games, and they're down to 19th in defensive rating over that span. Murphy's a solid mid-range option, especially given his recent uptick in rebounding (6.4 rebounds per game in March).

Aaron Nesmith ($5,300) -- I'm still waiting on Aaron Nesmith to get back on track, but he notably played 39 minutes in Indiana's last game -- his most since returning from injury on March 1st. Though he's been held under 30 FPs in six straight, tonight's bout with Brooklyn sets him up well. Indiana has the slate's highest implied total (120.0) while numberFire projects him for 27.8 FPs -- good for the second-best point-per-dollar value among SFs (5.25 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

Paolo Banchero ($8,800) -- There's a chance Paolo Banchero rides the pine early in a blowout, but his matchup with Portland is uber-appealing in larger tournaments. The Blazers are down to 29th in defensive rating over the last 15 games, and they've surrendered the second-most FPPG to SFs over that span. There's slate-leading upside here, though I'd be hesitant to deploy him in single-entry contests.

Kris Murray ($4,700) -- Considering their matchup with Orlando's second-rated D, I'm largely staying away from Portland's offense tonight, even if they have several strong values according to our projections. Still, Kris Murray just played 42 minutes in their blowout loss to Miami, so he's certainly worth a flyer at $4.7K. With a 24.9-FP numberFire projection, Murray is the top point-per-dollar value among SFs (5.3 FPs per $1,000).

Bigs

Top Plays

Zion Williamson ($9,200) -- Zion Williamson boasts numberFire's highest raw projection (48.0) in his matchup with Phoenix. I can certainly get behind Zion as a building block given his recent play. With Brandon Ingram out the last four games, Williamson has averaged 29.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. He's chipped in 1.5 steals per game over that stretch, culminating in 46.8 FPPG. Though Phoenix has defended forwards well this season, Zion's enhanced role can't be ignored. His points prop is set at 26.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook -- one point lower than we project him for.

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,400) -- Jaren Jackson Jr. is coming off a brutal outing against Orlando where he shot 1-of-9 from the floor and finished with 13.3 FPs. Better days are ahead for JJJ, perhaps as soon as tonight. Memphis travels to Detroit tonight for a matchup that's yielded strong results for opposing bigs. For the season, the Pistons have given up the fourth-most points in the paint and the third-most FPPG. Look for Jackson Jr. to bounce back in a big way.

Trendon Watford ($4,800) -- I'm leaning toward stars or scrubs down low tonight, so Trendon Watford is uber-appealing at $4.8K. The third-year big has seen a spike in playing time over the last four games, averaging 23.3 minutes per game. Watford's averaged 26.9 FPPG over that span, notably going for 15 points and 8 rebounds against Anthony Davis last night. With Indiana allowing the second-most FPPG to PFs on the year, Watford could thrive again.

Others to Consider

Jalen Duren ($7,500) -- Fresh off a 56.9-FP outing against Washington, Jalen Duren's upside is well-established in another soft matchup with Memphis. For as good of a defender as Jaren Jackson Jr. is, the Grizzlies have surrendered more than their fair share of FanDuel points to bigs this season. On the year, they've allowed the sixth-most FPPG to Cs, primarily thanks to their 25th-ranked rebound rate. He's an awesome game stack opposite JJJ.

Jabari Walker ($4,500) -- With a 25.5-FP numberFire projection, Jabari Walker is our top point-per-dollar value on tonight's slate (5.66 FPs per $1,000). Orlando has been a nightmare matchup for bigs, but Walker's workload is hard to ignore. He just played 34 minutes in Portland's blowout loss to Miami and projects for 35.5 minutes tonight. At $4.5K, Walker's a sneaky addition to star-heavy lineups.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.