FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 8/17/23

We have a tidy Thursday main slate that comes in at four games, and on top of that, poor weather in Cleveland might knock it down to just three.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Of our eight starters tonight, this slate boils down to four guys: Zac Gallen ($10,700), Corbin Burnes ($10,100), Lance Lynn ($9,400), and Tarik Skubal ($8,900). The other four options all have strikeout rates that fall below 20% and don't have the matchups and/or workloads to realistically make up for that.

In addition, there's a good chance Skubal gets nixed due to the aforementioned forecast at Progressive Field.

Focusing on the remaining three, Lynn arguably gets the nod because he has the softest matchup versus the Milwaukee Brewers.

Against righties, the Brewers' active roster has both the fifth-worst wRC+ (93) and ISO (.150). That lack of power is particularly important for Lynn, who's had home run issues all season.

Milwaukee's lineup shouldn't be overloaded with lefties, too, which also bodes well for the right-hander due to his stark splits. Not only does Lynn allow more home runs to left-handed batters, but his strikeout rate plummets to 23.6% -- a far cry from the elite 31.0% clip he boasts in same-sided matchups.

The Brewers have the slate's lowest implied team total (3.70), and it's the only one below four runs tonight. Lynn has performed well since joining the Los Angeles Dodgers, scoring 43 or more FanDuel points in three straight outings.

If we aren't opting for Lynn, Gallen has to be the guy. He has the best 2023 resume on the board, and his matchup against the San Diego Padres, while definitely not ideal, isn't as daunting as Burnes' spot versus the Dodgers.

Still the favorite to win the NL Cy Young, per FanDuel Sportsbook, Gallen comes in with a 3.57 SIERA, 26.6% strikeout rate, and 5.2% walk rate over 25 starts.

Given his 39.2% ground-ball rate and more hard contact allowed than you might expect, he's probably lucky to have given up just 0.87 home runs per nine innings, but outside of his 2021 campaign, the long ball simply hasn't been a big problem over his career.

While this is a repeat matchup against an above-average Padres offense, Gallen handled his business the last time, logging 52 FanDuel points. We haven't seen these kinds of ceiling games from him as much lately, but the bar could be lower on a small slate, and his innings volume tends to give him a high floor. Gallen has thrown the fourth-most innings this year.

Moving on to Burnes, he's been a conundrum all season. In mid-July it looked like he had turned a corner after piling up double-digit strikeouts in back-to-back starts, but he's been just okay ever since despite generally facing modest opposition.

A date with the Dodgers isn't likely to change his fortunes. Still, anyone with Burnes' overall track record has to be considered when the options are so limited. He's actually found more success facing left-handed hitters this season with a 27.6% strikeout rate and 53.5% ground-ball rate, so it's possible he gets some easy outs in the bottom half of the Dodgers' order.

If rain doesn't remove Skubal from the equation, he's our top value play.

The left-hander has impressed over his seven 2023 starts, amassing a 3.14 SIERA, 27.7% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate, and 54.7% ground-ball rate. Keeping that up over a full campaign would turn a lot of heads.

Skubal's fresh off a season-high 94 pitches, so he ought to have a full workload moving forward, too. His matchup against the Cleveland Guardians is a poor one for strikeouts, but they also don't have a lick of pop against lefties. Cleveland's active roster has a laughable .104 ISO in the split this year.

Hitting Breakdown

The chalk stack has to be the New York Mets, who have a slate-high 5.50 implied team total against Adam Wainwright.

Not only is Wainwright by far the night's worst pitcher, but he's been one of the worst in all of baseball. Among pitchers with over 50 innings, the 41-year-old's 8.78 ERA is by far the highest mark.

Obviously, we know better than to rely solely on ERA these days, but as you might expect, when it's this bad, the underlying metrics aren't going to be pretty, either. His 7.79 xERA is only marginally better, and while Baseball Savant's colored sliders tend to be overrated, coming in at the first percentile of six categories isn't a ringing endorsement.

Throw in an 11.8% strikeout rate and 1.89 dingers per nine innings flying out of the park, and you get the picture. Hey, at least he has "just" a 5.67 SIERA?

Pete Alonso ($3,700), Francisco Lindor ($3,600), and Francisco Alvarez ($2,800) are the top power options, and Brandon Nimmo ($3,000), and Dan Vogelbach ($2,400) are value plays with the platoon advantage.

But given both the cupcake matchup and the assumed popularity of this stack, we shouldn't hesitate to stack just about any of the Mets tonight, as the bottom of the order should see lower roster percentages.

On the other side, the St. Louis Cardinals are the one other team exceeding five implied runs. Although left-hander Jose Quintana is a significant step up from Wainwright by default, his peripheral numbers suggest his 3.03 ERA will regress.

Over five starts, Quintana has submitted a 5.13 SIERA and 16.3% strikeout rate, and given that he's also allowing a 41.3% fly-ball rate, he's likely to give up his first 2023 home run sooner rather than later.

The Cardinals could counter the southpaw with a full lineup of righties, making them well-equipped to send one (or more) in the outfield seats.

Paul Goldschmidt ($3,600) and Nolan Arenado ($3,500) are the only guys with salaries over $3,000, so this is another stack that shouldn't be difficult to piece together. Willson Contreras ($2,700) and Tyler O'Neill ($2,500) give us some low-salaried power in the middle of the order, and then Tommy Edman ($2,900) is a value leadoff man if he's atop the order.

The Arizona Diamondbacks round out the top three stacks, and they'll probably draw the least attention of this trio.

They're facing 43-year-old Rich Hill, another veteran who doesn't have a ton left in the tank. The left-hander enters with a 4.76 SIERA and 19.8% strikeout rate, and while he hasn't been particularly good versus lefties or righties, we'll naturally want to prioritize the latter. When facing right-handed batters, Hill has coughed up 1.47 home runs per nine innings.

Among the righty hitters, Christian Walker ($3,600) is the top choice, followed by Ketel Marte ($3,400) and Tommy Pham ($2,900). Corbin Carroll ($3,800) hasn't shown much power in lefty-lefty matchups, so he isn't someone to roster as a one-off, but his overall talent is worth considering in stacks at what could be a lower roster percentage than the top righties.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.