FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 4/14/24

Some high-octane offenses are in elite spots on Sunday. Which hurlers should -- or can -- we pair with them?

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitchers to Target

Bailey Ober ($8,900)

Knowing I'll need salary for stacks, it helps that two value pitchers could have a claim to today's top overall scorer.

The first is Bailey Ober ($8,900). The Minnesota Twins' gangling righty doesn't have the ERA (12.79) you'd hope to see through two starts, but at least they were forgivable performances against the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Even with poor results, Ober's 4.26 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is much more normal and better, and his strikeout rate (24.2%) is more than serviceable to rack up punchouts and score fantasy points.

Luckily, he's dropping back to his easiest test yet. The opposing Detroit Tigers have an ugly .633 OPS (sixth-worst in MLB) and 25.7% strikeout rate (tied for seventh-worst) against right-handed pitching.

Ober is projected for 29.5 fantasy points by FanDuel Research's MLB projections, but I'll take the over on that mark.

Mitch Keller ($8,500)

After an All-Star appearance last season, Mitch Keller ($8,500) was on the radar for several as an NL Cy Young dark horse. Through two efforts, he's got ground to make up.

Keller's 5.29 ERA isn't great, but his 4.23 SIERA suggests that it's not all the right-handers fault. I expect better results ahead, and he might also be due for a little positive regression in the swing-and-miss category. The Pittsburgh Pirates' top arm has a below-average 21.5% strikeout rate for that title, but his 12.4% swinging-strike rate suggests a rate closer to 25.0% might be on the way.

Luckily for him, today's matchup should be a solid one. Visiting the Philadelphia Phillies in Citizens Bank Park is never an easy task for pitchers, but the Phils' lineup has made it a bit easier this year. They've posted a surprisingly inept 70 wRC+ and 25.7% strikeout rate -- identical to Detroit -- against righties in the early going.

With Zack Wheeler on the other side, both aces know they'll have to bring their best to prevail in today's matchup. Expect Keller to do his part.

Others to Consider

• Zack Wheeler ($10,600)
  • Wheeler's 2.80 SIERA and 26.3% strikeout rate are excellent form, but I have a hard time justifying his salary against a Buccos lineup that doesn't strike out often against righties (20.6% rate).
• Jose Berrios ($9,600)
  • Most might lock the Toronto Blue Jays' Opening Day starter in without much thought against the Colorado Rockies, but Colorado's 99 wRC+ -- adjusted for park -- isn't close to the easiest matchup on the board.
• Graham Ashcraft ($9,100)
  • Ashcraft's matchup is the easiest one on the board. The impotent Chicago White Sox can't score in either split, but their .616 OPS and .125 ISO against righties is especially poor. Ash's ERA (5.40) is far worse than his SIERA (3.49) believes it should be on merit.

Stacks to Target

Toronto Blue Jays

Kyle Freeland trolled the MLB DFS masses by allowing just two runs in five innings last week at Coors Field, but the Blue Jays will have a chance to knock the lefty back down a peg.

Freeland's profile is still littered with concerns, including a 5.75 SIERA, basically non-existent 9.3% strikeout rate, and 41.2% hard-hit rate. There was nothing to suggest his effort was coming other than variance.

However, Toronto's right-handed-heavy lineup has crushed southpaws to begin the 2024 campaign. They've got a top-five wRC+ (131) and ISO (.188) in the split. Though, be wary of some players struggling against lefties like George Springer ($3,200) and Bo Bichette ($3,200). They've fared much better against righties.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,500), Justin Turner ($3,500), and Davis Schneider ($2,800) all have a wRC+ north of 120 against lefties so far. They're who I'd build this stack around.

Cincinnati Reds

It gets tedious after a while to pick on the White Sox on both sides of the plate, but I've got no choice again today with Mike Soroka starting.

The former Atlanta Braves prospect hasn't found his footing on the South Side, accumulating a 5.33 SIERA and 9.3% strikeout rate in two starts. It certainly doesn't help his case that the Cincinnati Reds carry a .744 OPS into one of baseball's best parks for homers.

The tricky part about stacking the Reds is their insistence on putting underperforming hitters like Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeimer Candelario in marquee lineup spots. I wouldn't touch either sporting a sub-30 wRC+ in this split at present.

On the flip side, Elly De La Cruz ($4,100), Spencer Steer ($3,800), Jonathan India ($3,200), Will Benson ($3,100), and Jake Fraley ($2,800) all carry an OPS of .705 or better in the split.

With plenty of diversity in a wraparound stack, I wouldn't fault anyone who claimed Cincy was the best place to look for hitters today. After all, our projections have three Reds in the top-eight projected hitters overall.

Others to Consider

• Baltimore Orioles
  • Today is an excellent spot for the O's against Colin Rea (5.16 SIERA), but the challenge with stacking them is always a heart of the order solely consisting of 1B/OF options. They're fine with better alternatives.
• Kansas City Royals
  • Don't let Jose Butto's 1.50 ERA fool you. His SIERA (4.14) is much worse with a 50.0% hard-hit rate allowed. K.C.'s 4.40-run implied total caught me off guard, but they could be extremely sneaky.
• Atlanta Braves
  • I'm contractually obligated to mention the Bravos any time they're on the main slate, but obviously, the matchup with Jesus Luzardo (3.69 SIERA last year) in an extreme pitcher's park could be better. If you're going to ever get them largely ignored, it'd be on a slate like this.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.