EPL Betting Picks for Thursday 4/4/24: Salah, Liverpool Look to Go Top Again

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

The last two midweek matches come to us on Thursday.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

EPL Betting Picks: Thursday 4/4/24

Sheffield United at Liverpool (2:30 PM ET)

Liverpool -2.5 (-140)

It's first against worst in this matchup, so we're going to an alternative market.

Not only are Sheffield United the worst team in the league this season, they are one of the worst teams in Premier League history. Since FBRef began tracking xG in the 2017-18 season, only Norwich City in 2021-22 had a worse xG differential per 90 minutes than Sheffield United does right now. Unfortunately for the Blades, they still have time to set this dubious record.

Sheffield United have to travel to face Liverpool, who were atop the table headed into this matchweek. The Reds have been dominant at home in the league this season. They haven't lost any of their 15 home matches and have only drawn three of 15.

Their home dominance goes beyond just winning the games. Their goal difference in home matches is +27, so over 15 matches, they are nearly winning by two goals per game. The underlying data is also extremely favorable, as they average a +1.94 xG differential per 90 minutes at Anfield.

This, of course, doesn't include any game against Sheffield United, the worst team in the league. The Blades have a goal difference of -50 this season and have lost by as much as eight goals in a match.

It may seem a bit ridiculous to actually lay odds on Liverpool having to win by at least three goals, but all of the data says this is a huge mismatch. Considering that Liverpool are actually favored to score four goals on FanDuel Sportsbook, it's not actually that outlandish to lay the -140 here.

Manchester United at Chelsea (3:15 PM ET)

Under 3.5 Goals (-116)

We've got a matchup between two teams in the "Big Six," both of whom might finish outside the top six in the Premier League this season.

Both teams have underperformed this season, especially in the goal-scoring department. Chelsea have scored 49 goals in the league in 28 matches, the ninth-most in the EPL. They've underperformed their 54.3 xG.

Manchester United have been even worse at scoring. They have just 40 goals and have played a game more than Chelsea. They've also underperformed their total of 43.8 xG.

United are even worse at scoring on the road. They have scored just 19 goals in 15 matches away from Old Trafford in the league this season. In those 15 matches, 12 of them have gone under the 3.5 total.

Chelsea have recently played some high-scoring matches, but they have actually allowed the sixth-fewest xG in the Premier League overall this campaign.

This match finished 2-1 to United back in December, and it wouldn't surprise me if this game is even lower scoring. I'd be tempted to go under 2.5 goals at +200 odds, as well, but under 3.5 is obviously much safer.

Player Props

Mohamed Salah to Assist (+105): We expect Liverpool to score goals in this match, so we should see Mo Salah involved in their attack.

Salah is -175 to score, and that's a bit too short for me to back. Instead, I will bet on him to provide a goal.

Salah has nine assists in the Premier League this season. Only three players have more assists than that this season. I like getting better than even money on him creating a goal against the worst defensive team in the league.

Cole Palmer 2+ Shots on Target (+140): Cole Palmer has arguably been Chelsea's best player this season, and he bagged two goals on Saturday.

He doesn't even need to find the back of the net to cash this bet. He just needs to get two shots on target, which he has done in three straight games.

Now, he'll face a Manchester United team that will be without two of their top three center backs as Victor Lindelof and Lisandro Martinez will miss this game, meaning Harry Maguire or Johnny Evans will likely have to start.

Palmer should be able to get to two shots on target today, and this +140 number is pretty appealing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.