Soccer

EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 32: Who Should You Back in the United-Liverpool Matchup?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 32: Who Should You Back in the United-Liverpool Matchup?

After a run of midweek EPL action, the final stretch of the season continues with Matchweek 32 this weekend.

Matchweek 32, which runs from Saturday to Sunday and features 10 matches, is highlighted by a clash between Manchester United and Liverpool on Sunday.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 32

Liverpool at Manchester United (10:30 a.m. ET Sunday)

Liverpool Moneyline (-140)

At numerous points this season, when United are coming off impressive results, the question has been asked -- is Manchester United back? The answer has always been no. After United earned their biggest result of the season, a 4-3 win over Liverpool in the FA Cup on March 17th, the question was asked again. The answer is still no. United followed up that huge result with a disappointing 1-1 draw with Brentford. The story remains the same.

Liverpool bounced back from that loss to United with a 2-1 victory over Brighton and are set to continue that momentum against Sheffield United on Thursday. The Reds have just one loss -- at Arsenal -- in their last 22 EPL fixtures. They have just two losses on the season.

Entering this clash, Liverpool has played several close matches, with two wins (vs. Nottingham Forest and Brighton) and a draw (vs. Manchester City) by a combined scoreline of 4-2. Those results seem to indicate a bit of a drop in form from their usual high-scoring performances, but their expected goal numbers -- per FBRef -- indicate they should bounce back soon. In those three matches, the Reds generated 7.5 xG. Heading into Thursday's game, they have amassed at least 2.0 xG in six consecutive matches, including at least 2.7 xG in five of those six.

That is a major problem for a Manchester United defense that has allowed the seventh-most xG this season (50.7). United have struggled to defend against most teams -- especially against the EPL's elite. They allowed three goals to Manchester City in both their matches, three goals to Arsenal in their only meeting, and three goals to Liverpool in one of their two meetings (the other finished as a 0-0 draw, which Liverpool won 2.3-0.8 on xG).

While their attack gets most of the attention, Liverpool's defense has been solid this season. They have allowed the third-fewest xG (34.9) and second-fewest away goals (14) this season. That is also a problem for a United side that generated only 0.6 xG against Brentford last Saturday.

United have shown up with big performances in some matches this season, but they have been incredibly inconsistent. Liverpool are -- by far -- the better side. They have more to play for, and with United playing against Chelsea on Thursday, the Reds could enter this one with their stars more rested if they are able to take their foot off the gas against Sheffield United.

Liverpool has won six of their last seven away fixtures, and I like them to take all three points on Sunday.

Arsenal at Brighton (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday)

Arsenal to Win and Under 3.5 (+165)

This bet has two parts to it. First, Arsenal to win.

In their 10 EPL matches since the start of the year, the Gunners have nine wins and one draw (at Manchester City). They have been the best team in the league in 2024, dominating lesser opposition and picking up wins over quality sides suchs as Newcastle (4-1) and Liverpool (3-1). Even their one draw can be seen as a positive performance -- earning a point on the road against the defending champions is a difficult task.

Arsenal lead the EPL in both most goals scored (72) and fewest goals allowed (24). Their expected goal differential per 90 minutes (xGD/90) of +1.25 leads the league. The Gunners are on the road in this one but are listed as -170 favorites to take all three points. When Arsenal has struggled this season, its been primarily on the road, where three of their four losses and three of their five draws have come. Since the year changed, they have won four of five away fixtures by a combined scoreline of 19-1.

Brighton enter this match with just one win in their last five EPL fixtures -- a 1-0 home victory over Nottingham Forest. They managed to lose only 2-1 at Liverpool last time out, but on xG, they lost that match 2.8-0.5. Their other three matches during that stretch are draws against Everton and Brentford and a 3-0 loss to Fulham.

After struggling against teams in the bottom half of the table, Brighton now have to face arguably the best -- and most in-form -- team in the EPL. Brighton has been excellent at home, with just one loss in 14 EPL matches, but Arsenal will be the toughest home opponent they've faced this season.

The second part to this bet: under 3.5 goals.

With the form Arsenal is in, there is always a risk of them scoring four goals by themselves. The reason Brighton have been so successful at home is their defense. They are allowing just 1.14 goals per home match this season and are conceding just 0.83 xG per home match over their last six. Only three of Brighton's last 11 home matches have gone over 3.5 goals.

Arsenal's defense will almost certainly do their part. The Gunners' D has been the pillar of their title charge this season. They lead the league in fewest goals allowed/90 (0.77) and fewest xG allowed/90 (0.69). They are giving up fewer goals per game on the road this season (0.73) than at home (0.86). Arsenal has not allowed more than 1.3 xG in an away match this season. The Gunners enter this one with a clean sheet in four consecutive away matches and are averaging just 0.44 xG allowed over their last five.

For a Brighton side that has just two goals from 3.3 xG across their last four matches, finding the back of the net will be an extremely difficult task.

Arsenal are clear favorites in this one, and both teams pride themselves on defense. I believe Brighton can do enough to keep Arsenal from running away with a lopsided win, but I still expect the Gunners to take all three points.

Player Props

Cole Palmer to Score or Assist (-155): One of the most in-form players in the EPL faces a Sheffield United side that has allowed the most goals per 90 minutes (2.48) this season. Prior to his match against Manchester United on Thursday, Palmer has scored three goals in his last two matches and combined for four assists in his last five EPL fixtures. Chelsea is set up for success on Sunday, and Palmer should be at the center of their attack.

Phil Foden to Score (+175): Foden's exceptional season continued with a hat trick against Aston Villa on Wednesday. He has six goals over his last five matches and ranks fifth in the EPL in non-penalty goals this season (14). Crystal Palace has just one win in their last eight matches and only one clean sheet in their last 11. They have defended well against lesser opposition but allowed significant goal totals to Tottenham (3), Chelsea (3), Brighton (4), and Arsenal (5) in 2024.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.