NFL

Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 2

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 2

Offensive efficiency was hard to find in Week 1, and that sets us up well for a lot of bounce-back spots for the Week 2 main slate.

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 2 FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Team
Opponent
Implied Total
Spread
Over/Under
Opp D Rank
Opp Pass D Rank
Opp Rush D Rank
BUFLV28.25-9.547.0292318
KC@JAC27.25-3.051.54122
DETSEA26.25-5.547.0313024
SF@LA26-8.044.0161421
CINBAL25-3.546.5354
DALNYJ24.5-9.539.5151916
MIA@NE24.25-2.046.59169
View Full Table

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

FanDuel Salary: $7,800
vs. Chiefs

There's a shootout game brewing in Jacksonville, and that means Trevor Lawrence could put up a huge game against the Chiefs. Lawrence threw 32 times in Week 1 for 241 yards and 2 touchdowns. Though the average depth of target (aDOT) was a little lackluster (6.7 yards), Lawrence made up for that with 7 carries and 21 yards -- including a red zone carry.

Lawrence's rushing is usually not talked about too much, yet he has some juice there. The Chiefs didn't generate much pressure in Week 1, so the arrow is up on Lawrence in Week 2.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

FanDuel Salary: $7,600
at Bengals

Lamar Jackson's Week 1 was really forgettable, but a big game in Week 2 could be gettable.

Jackson threw only 22 times, completing 17 of them for 169 yards (7.7 per attempt) despite a low aDOT (4.9 yards) in the opener. He lost out on touchdown opportunities near the goal line, but he ran 6 times for 38 yards (no red zone carries, though).

Cincinnati allowed a high aDOT in Week 1 (30th in the NFL), and the return of Mark Andrews can't be understated.

Others to Consider

Josh Allen ($9,200 vs. LV) - Eruption spot against LV, who ranked last in pressure rate in Week 1.

Patrick Mahomes ($9,000 at JAC) - Getting Kelce back and threw deep often in Week 1 while running 6 times.

Joe Burrow ($7,400 vs. BAL) - A terrible Week 1 had some decent underlying data at least; salary is down in a possible back-and-forth affair.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

FanDuel Salary: $8,000
vs. Jets

The Jets allowed a 46.7% rushing success rate in Week 1 (29th in the NFL), and Tony Pollard should be able to do a bit with that.

Pollard had a 63.6% snap rate in Week 1 -- but an 80.8% first-half snap rate in a blowout victory. He also accounted for 7 red zone carries, a 70.0% team share. Pollard also had a 64.0% route rate (16 routes) that led to 3 targets.

There were building blocks in that game script to point to a big outing in Week 2.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

FanDuel Salary: $7,500
at Bills

Josh Jacobs and the Raiders are big underdogs against the Bills (9.5 points, that is), and their implied team total is pretty low at 18.75 points. So, there's definitely a little risk here, but if this game stays close at all, Jacobs should be a key reason why.

In Week 1, Jacobs maintained an 80.0% snap rate (44 snaps) and saw 19 rushes (5 in the red zone) for 71 yards. Jacobs was also targeted 3 times on 14 routes (a 53.8% route rate). He's a dual-threat running back in a game with a high total.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Salary: $5,800
vs. Seahawks

Jahmyr Gibbs should be in line for more work in Week 2, which is good news because he needs that.

Gibbs was out-snapped by David Montgomery 78.3% to 27.5% -- which does add up to over 100.0% because they shared the field on some plays. Gibbs ran 9 routes and had 2 targets while Montgomery was not targeted on his 16 routes.

While Montgomery is still viable this week at a $6,300 salary, it was Gibbs who had a better rushing output versus expectation (+0.63 yards per carry versus a -0.45 rate for Montgomery).

Others to Consider

Joshua Kelley ($6,300 at TEN) - Tough matchup but Ekeler out; still one of the better options in this loaded salary range.

Rachaad White ($6,200 vs. CHI) - TB's RB1 (79.4% snap rate) with both red zone rushes.

David Montgomery ($6,300 vs. SEA) - Snap share was great (78.3%); room to succeed at this salary even with a lessened role.

James Cook ($6,600 vs. LV) - 60.3% snap rate and 6 targets works at this salary.

James Conner ($6,400 vs. NYG) - 82.8% snap rate and a surprising 69.7% route participation with 5 targets.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

FanDuel Salary: $8,000
vs. Raiders

Stefon Diggs was peppered on Monday Night Football in Week 1 to the tune of 10 catches on 13 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown. That worked out to a 33.3% target share, a 44.6% air yard share, and a 100.0% red zone target share (2 targets).

There wasn't a lot of yardage against the Raiders in Week 1, but they allowed a catch rate over expectation of +8.9% to WRs.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

FanDuel Salary: $7,500
at Bills

Davante Adams is in line for a lot of work in Week 2 -- again.

Week 1 hero Jakobi Meyers is in concussion protocol, and there isn't anyone else to take substantial volume from Adams.

Davante ran every single route in Week 1 (all 26!) and caught 6 of 9 targets for 66 yards. Of those 9 targets, 5 were deep, and 1 was in the red zone, so there was a lot of leverage on them. Adams should be fine in the right spots, and a game of catch-up against the Bills is one of them.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

FanDuel Salary: $7,000
vs. Ravens

Sure, Tee Higgins got blanked in Week 1 -- but he wasn't forgotten about.

Higgins ran every route and had a 17.2-yard aDOT on his 8 targets. Of those 8 targets, 5 traveled at least 10 yards downfield and 1 was an end zone target.

Higgins ranked third in air yards (137.5) among all receivers in Week 1. The salary isn't super low, yet it's low enough to buy back.

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

FanDuel Salary: $5,800
vs. 49ers

While waiver-wire darling Puka Nacua should be a popular DFS play this week, we don't need to overthink it too much and avoid him because of it. Nacua is one of two receivers to have a 40.0% target share after one week, and his market share was tied to 15 targets.

Those 15 targets were good for 10 catches and 119 yards. Additionally, Nacua saw 5 downfield targets and a red zone target while churning out a 3.50 yards-per-route-run rate.

San Francisco let up 19 catches on 27 receiver targets to the Steelers in Week 1, good for a 70.4% completion rate and a +8.4% completion rate over expected.

Nacua was not able to practice fully this week. He was still limited on Friday but is expected to play.

Others to Consider

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100 vs. SEA) - 71-yard opener on a 28.1% target share.

Deebo Samuel ($6,900 at LAR) - Ran every route in Week 1 and had 2 carries.

Zay Flowers ($6,600 at CIN) - Led all players in target share (47.6%); room to scale back even with Andrews back.

Chris Godwin ($6,300 vs. CHI) - Low aDOT (5.5) but high route participation (94.3%).

Tutu Atwell ($5,500 vs. SF) - 8 targets of his own in Week 1 with more downfield (6) than Nacua (5).

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $8,500
at Jaguars

We didn't get to see Travis Kelce in the opener for the Chiefs, but he should be back for Week 2 (he was limited in practice on Friday). Even at this salary, we need to consider him.

My simulation model has his odds to get to at least 15.0 FanDuel points (something no tight end did in Week 1, mind you) at 43.7%. Kelce reached 15 FanDuel points in nine games a year ago.

The Jaguars allowed a high aDOT to tight ends in Week 1 (10.4 yards -- the position average was 6.6).

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Salary: $5,100
vs. Seahawks

Sam LaPorta is a home favorite with a high implied team total, a great sign for a tight end.

In his Week 1 debut, LaPorta hauled in all 5 targets for 39 yards -- albeit on a minuscule 3.9-yard aDOT and no downfield work.

However, the rookie played on 82.6% of the team's snaps and ran 61.1% of the team's routes.

Others to Consider

Mark Andrews ($8,000 at CIN) - Per-game line of 7.9 targets, 60.1 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns with Jackson healthy last year. Full practice by Friday.

Luke Musgrave ($5,000 at ATL) - 75.0% route rate and 4 targets with a 16.9-yard aDOT.

Dalton Schultz ($4,800 vs. IND) - Led all TEs in route rate (91.3%) in Week 1 but just 4 targets with a 0.7-yard aDOT.

Defenses

Dallas Cowboys

FanDuel Salary: $4,500
vs. Jets

The Cowboys' defense really swung fantasy matchups last week after a 40-0 win against the Giants. While we can't expect that exact outcome again, they're squaring up with the Zach Wilson-led Jets.

Wilson managed just a 4.3-yard aDOT and was sacked on 2 of 23 drop backs (8.7%).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $4,100
vs. Bears

The Bears were a prime matchup last week when they let up 4 sacks (a 9.8% sack rate) and a pick-six to the Packers.

The Buccaneers put the clamps on the run game last week but were more vulnerable against the pass. Still, they set up to generate sacks and turnovers at home, which puts them firmly in play at this salary.

Others to Consider

New York Giants ($4,400 at ARI) - Dallas ran through them, but Dobbs averaged 4.4 yards per attempt and took a 9.1% sack rate.

Houston Texans ($3,400 vs. IND) - Richardson may not be 100%; they caused some problems for Lamar last week.


Be sure to check out all of the Week 2 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel, including the $2.5M NFL Sunday Million for a chance to win $1 million for a $5 entry.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.