College Football Single-Game Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Army at Navy (12/9/23)

With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which includes tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so figuring out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

How should we approach this week's main slate?

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category. All college football odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Army-Navy Preview

Usually, I don't miss the fact college football single-game slates don't have kickers or defenses. However, this perennial matchup could always use them.

Games featuring two service academies usually don't have high totals, but they still find a way to fall under them. These matchups with two military schools are 45-10-1 to the under since 2005, and there's just a 28.5-point total for the 125th Army-Navy Game on Saturday at Gillette Stadium in New England.

The important takeaway there is points will be at a premium. The players with the best offensive workloads in this game should be at a priority when efficiency is likely not going to be present.

These triple-option schools enter this one pretty close on offense. The Navy Midshipmen have posted 4.2 yards per carry this year (70th in FBS), and the Army Black Knights are basically tied with them (4.1). However, defensively, Navy (3.7 YPC allowed; 29th in FBS) has stopped the run much better than Army (5.4 YPC allowed; 124th in FBS). Personally, I'm stunned the Midshipmen are an underdog when that's also come against better competition in the AAC.

With all this in mind, let's dive into the best roles and process plays for the single-game DFS slate.

MVP Considerations

• Bryson Daily ($18,000)
  • Daily should be a popular choice at MVP because he's the only stable quarterback in this game. Daily has posted 84.1 rushing yards per game as Army's exclusive signal-caller, and their backfield is far messier to pin down. Plus, the Black Knights are a 2.5-point favorite with a higher implied total (15.5 points). If I needed 10 FanDuel points for my livelihood from anyone in the game, he'd be my choice.
• Alex Tecza ($15,000)
  • Both of the running-back rooms are committee's but Tecza has Navy's best role by a mile. He's averaged 10.8 carries per game in the last five weeks, and no other Midshipmen back has more than 4.7 totes per contest in the stretch. Given the ambiguity at QB, he's the underdog's best offensive weapon in a vacuum.
• Xavier Arline ($14,000)
  • In the midst of losing 59-10 to the SMU Mustangs, the senior Arline was benched last week, but SMU won the AAC on the back of their elite rush D. I can't see him being benched in his final collegiate game should Navy lose, so I'm projecting him to start in a far easier matchup than last week. Two weeks ago, Arline completed 10 of 11 passes for 102 yards and added 68 on the ground.

Flex Considerations

• Braxton Woodson ($14,000)
  • Woodson is Navy's future. The athletic true freshman gave them a spark with 104 rushing yards and a touchdown in relief of Arline last game against SMU, and he's posted 12.7 pass attempts per game to Arline's 8.4, so the Midshipmen trust him more in passing situations. As mentioned, I believe Arline starts, but he works as a contrarian flex play if Navy falls behind early.
• Kanye Udoh ($9,000)
  • Down the stretch, Udoh has taken on a role that can rival Tecza's. He's averaged 11.0 carries per game (26.9% rush share) in the past five weeks but hasn't scored since September 9th. However, the real concern is he didn't get a single carry last week, and I can't find news of an injury. The true freshman isn't exactly an ideal candidate to steal work from seniors in this special game, either.
• Brandon Chatman ($7,500)
  • After the lead pair of backs, Chatman (6.0 carries per game in the past five weeks) has the best role of the remaining committee members for Navy. Interestingly, he's also posted a 14.9% target share overall this season, which is second on the team to Eli Heidenreich ($10,000) at 16.9%. I just don't believe his salary should be lower than Heidenreich's lesser role, so there's value at this mark.
• Jakobi Buchanan ($7,000)
  • In potentially his last collegiate game, I'd expect that Buchanan carries the load for Army. He out-touched Tyrell Robinson ($8,000), 12-7, in Army's last contest against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. The concern for both is Udoh's multiple 100-yard games and better overall skill, but if he continues to stay on the pine, Buchanan should be one of the game's better bets to score.
• Tobi Olawale ($6,500)
  • In the past five weeks, Olawale has taken on Army's lead recieving role -- not that it's much of a role. He leads the entire slate in routes per game (12.5), targets per game (2.5), and target share (20.0%) in that stretch. The Black Knights didn't target a single player with just two throwaways in their last game, so keep in mind the obvious risks of targeting a pass-catcher on Saturday.
• Jayden Umbarger ($6,500)
  • Umbarger has run 12.0 routes per game in the past five weeks, and no one else on Navy has eclipsed a double-digit average. I'm expecting a ton of Navy success on the ground because of Army's defense, but Navy's rush rate this year (75.1%) isn't as high as you might think for a service academy. If forced to choose one of the wideouts, I'd likely go with Umbarger, who also would pair better for upside in a build with Woodson.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.