College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 9/30/23

With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which includes tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so figuring out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

This Saturday should be another wildly high-scoring slate. We've got ranked clashes with top quarterbacks and offenses in three spots that seem prone to blowing up, and market shares are becoming really solidly defined as we enter these conference games that matter. Choosing the best of the best is a must.

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.

The Slate

In some ways, this week feels a lot like the game profiles we had last week.

That includes the continuing saga of Deion Sanders' Colorado Buffaloes, who are once again three-touchdown underdogs. This time, it's at home against the USC Trojans. They got smacked last week, killing the DFS potential for all involved outside of one wideout, so we'll have to accept or reject that spread again this week.

The Mississippi Rebels are back in a projected shootout after flopping in Tuscaloosa last week, but the LSU Tigers are a prime spot for a bounce-back shootout with a weaker defense. There's a 67.5-point total in Oxford.

The next-highest trio of totals all contain double-digit spreads with home favorites, so forecasting which one of those games stays closer than advertised could reap massive benefits. Personally, I feel most comfortable that the South Carolina Gamecocks can hang with a less potent version of the Tennessee Volunteers than we saw last year.

We've got an Iowa school (the Iowa State Cyclones) traveling to Norman, which could kill the buzz of a fantasy-friendly Oklahoma Sooners offense if a 43.5-point total is any indication. The struggling Nebraska Cornhuskers will also be at home with a laughably low implied team total (11.5) against the staunch Michigan Wolverines defense.

Quarterbacks

Top Plays

• Caleb Williams ($12,800)
  • With USC's implied team total approach 50, Caleb is hard to ignore, and I think the Buffs hang tighter than expected in Boulder. This a high-profile game to pad his Heisman defense case, too.
• Jayden Daniels ($11,600)
  • He's found his stride, eclipsing 30 FanDuel points in back-to-back contests entering this projected shootout with Ole Miss. He's got a clear stacking partner, too.
• Shedeur Sanders ($10,300)
  • Expecting the Buffs to be behind but tighter than expected, Sanders easily leads the slate in attempts per game (42.5). CU doesn't run the ball, so he'll be a massive chunk of their offensive production. There just wasn't any against Oregon's defense (fifth in Passing YPA allowed). USC's (45th) is much more manageable.
• Garrett Shrader ($9,100)
  • Clemson was a cross-off matchup last year, but Jordan Travis posted 25.8 FanDuel points on them last week. At salary, it's hard to beat 85.0 rushing yards per game so far.
• Tyler Shough ($8,500)
  • My favorite budget quarterback of the week. Houston's defense (69th in Passing YPA allowed) is even worse than their metrics given their level of competition, and Shough contributes on the ground (54.8 yards per game), too.

Others to Consider

• Jaxson Dart ($10,500)
  • His salary is far more appropriate than the $9,100 mark from a week ago, but in the same environment as Daniels, he's got three rushing scores this year. Can't ignore him.
• Riley Leonard ($9,300)
  • Great player but a rough matchup with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense that just swallowed Kyle McCord.
• KJ Jefferson ($8,500)
  • Back-to-back weeks in FanDuel's perfect lineup, but the Texas A&M Aggies' defense is 47th in Passing YPA allowed.
• Jalon Daniels ($8,200)
  • If the Kansas Jayhawks hang tighter than expected, it's likely on the back of their dual-threat QB. He's just run less (37.0 yards per game) to prevent injuries in 2023.

Running Backs

Top Plays

• Jonathan Brooks ($9,500)
  • Brooks has arrived into the old Bijan Robinson role, amassing a 68.5% rush share and 19.5 carries per game in the last two weeks. If this one stays tighter than expected, a Daniels-Brooks stack could go nuclear.
• Emani Bailey ($9,300)
  • As conference play has started, Bailey's timeshare has become a hotspot. He's held a 58.0% rush share in not-so-competitive games each of the past two weeks, and he scored on a red zone carry. Trey Sanders might finally be out of the running here.
• MarShawn Lloyd ($8,700)
  • As a shock to no one, the South Carolina transfer has superseded the lower-ceiling senior Austin Jones in the Trojans' backfield. His 54.2% rush share the past two weeks could snag a couple scores off Williams' plate.
• Quinshon Judkins ($7,800)
  • The Alabama Crimson Tide defense ended up being a non-starter, but he's still receiving nearly every carry in the Ole Miss backfield when healthy and held a five-digit salary most of last year. Oh, he's in the game of the day, too.
• Tahj Brooks ($7,400)
  • The Houston side of this stack can be had at wideout, but Brooks has a great workload next to Shough. He's averaged 24.0 total opportunities the past two weeks for this salary.

Others to Consider

• Blake Corum ($10,000)
  • Obviously, the talent here is great. However, he's in the worst game enviornment of the day and still splitting work in blowouts (a.k.a. every game for Michigan thus far) with Donovan Edwards ($5,700). I won't get here.
• Ray Davis ($8,800)
  • This game isn't super appealing, but he makes for a solid mini-stack with a Florida Gators wideout to come. His 11.0% target share over the past two weeks is fifth among main slate running backs.
• Will Shipley ($8,600)
  • I've always avoided his part-time role at salary, but he's drawn 17.5 total opportunities with god-tier efficiency in the past two weeks. He's the best Clemson target to run back Shrader.
• LeQuint Allen ($8,100)
  • One of the best roles on the slate at salary. 19.0 carries and 5.0 targets on average in the past two weeks, and he also pairs well with Shipley. Clemson's D is the only issue.

Wide Receivers

Top Plays

• Malik Nabors ($10,500)
  • The future first-round pick has found his footing as the Tigers' lead guy. He's amassed 13.5 targets per game (a 40.5% share) in the last two weeks. He's a no-brainer in the slate's best environment.
• Xavier Weaver ($9,300)
  • The workload for Jimmy Horn Jr. ($7,800) dried up in Eugene, but Weaver got 13 targets (a 41.9% share) and stayed busy. They'll be the key two options with two-way stud Travis Hunter still sidelined.
• Matthew Golden ($8,800) and Samuel Brown ($7,900)
  • The Cougars' duo are how to run back Shough, Brooks, and the Red Raiders on the other side. They've combined for 48.4% of the team's targets.
  • Jerand Bradley ($8,400) is another TTU option at this position. He's drawn a team-best 9.5 targets per game in the past couple of weeks.
• Ricky Pearsall ($7,700)
  • The senior remains the lone DFS viable target on the Gators. Once a slot guy, Pearsall's evolving route tree has produced 36.4% of their passing yards and some insane highlights.
• Jordan Moore ($6,500)
  • Even in a tough matchup, this salary is too low. Moore has drawn 41.3% of Leonard's targets for Duke, and that's too good of a workload from an NFL QB to ignore.

Others to Consider

• Xavier Legette ($9,600)
  • The Gamecocks' big-play threat has a lower target share than I'd like (24.7%), but his slate-best yardage share (40.9%) shows he's made them count. It's a similar profile to Jalin Hyatt from last season.
• Jaylin Noel ($7,600)
  • Iowa State's passing game is wildly inefficient, but it works through Noel. He's gotten 32.4% of the targets each of the past two weeks. I wish his salary was lower, but he checks boxes.
• Jordan Watkins ($7,500)
  • Due to cluster injuries, Ole Miss' pass-catching group has been a plague on college football DFS all season. Watkins has a 36.2% target share in the past two weeks, but don't be surprised if Tre Harris ($7,200) and Zakhari Franklin ($6,000) pass him again on the depth chart as they get back up to speed.
• Anias Smith ($6,900)
  • Even though Evan Stewart ($10,000) scored last week, Smith has returned to a team-best 33.9% target share in the past two weeks. Smith worked ahead of Stewart when healthy, so I believe he takes the one of the slate's highest-salaried players off the board.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.