Celtics vs. Heat Eastern Conference Finals Betting Preview: Series Odds and Player Props

After the Boston Celtics' 112-88 win over the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 7 on Sunday, the NBA Eastern Conference Finals are set.

For the second season in a row and third time in the last four years, Boston and the Miami Heat will battle to represent the East in the NBA Finals.

The series gets underway on Wednesday with Game 1 in Boston.

Here's how the Celtics and Heat stack up heading into the Eastern Conference Finals.

All NBA odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Celtics vs. Heat Eastern Conference Finals: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

• Series Moneyline:
  • Celtics: -550
  • Heat: +390
• Total Games:
  • 4 (+390)
  • 5 (+190)
  • 6 (+240)
  • 7 (+270)
• Correct Score:
  • Celtics 4-0 (+370)
  • Celtics 4-1 (+210)
  • Celtics 4-2 (+360)
  • Celtics 4-3 (+420)
  • Heat 4-0 (+4900)
  • Heat 4-1 (+2500)
  • Heat 4-2 (+1000)
  • Heat 4-3 (+1100)

Celtics vs. Heat Eastern Conference Finals Player Props: MVP Odds and Top Points Scorer

• MVP Odds:
  • Jayson Tatum: -180
  • Jaylen Brown: +310
  • Jimmy Butler: +420
  • Bam Adebayo: +6500
  • Malcolm Brogdon: +9500
  • Derrick White: +9500
  • Marcus Smart: +9500
  • Robert Williams: +20000
  • Al Horford: +20000
  • Kyle Lowry: +23000
  • Max Strus: +40000
  • Gabe Vincent: +47000
• Top Points Scorer:
  • Jayson Tatum: -185
  • Jimmy Butler: +200
  • Jaylen Brown: +800
  • Bam Adebayo: +8000
  • Malcolm Brogdon: +12000
  • Kyle Lowry: +20000

Celtics vs. Heat Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

• Celtics:
  • nERD: 67.0 (1st)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.9 (2nd)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.3 (3rd)
  • Pace: 98.8 (17th)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 32.3% (24th) - 65.1% (8th)
    • Mid: 19.7% (1st) - 42.8% (18th)
    • 3PT: 48.0% (2nd) - 37.7% (6th)
• Heat:
  • nERD: 47.5 (22nd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 113.2 (25th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 113.4 (8th)
  • Pace: 96.3 (29th)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 29.9% (29th) - 62.6% (20th)
    • Mid: 29.4% (24th) - 45.3% (7th)
    • 3PT: 40.8% (9th) - 34.4% (27th)

Celtics vs. Heat Eastern Conference Finals Analysis

The more things change, the more they stay the same. After an NBA regular season and postseason full of twists and turns, the Eastern Conference Finals will feature the same two teams as it did last year.

Boston and Miami will clash in the ECF for the third time in the last four seasons. In the 2020 bubble, the Heat won in six games. Last year, the Celtics prevailed in a tightly contested seven-game series, with Jimmy Butler's game-winner coming up just short at the buzzer in Game 7. Now, they will get a chance to break the tie and earn another trip to the NBA Finals.

The Celtics entered the playoffs as the number 2 seed in the east. Their path to the ECF has been anything but smooth. Alternating between blowout wins and tight losses, Boston has played 13 of a possible 14 games so far this postseason. They appeared to be on track to eliminate the Atlanta Hawks in five games, but a late-game collapse at home forced them to close the series out on the road in Game 6.

Against the 76ers, fourth-quarter struggles and historic games from James Harden led to losses in Games 1 and 4. A disappointing loss at home in Game 5 forced Boston into back-to-back elimination games. They won both, though, with Jayson Tatum breaking out of his slump to steal Game 6 with a 16-point fourth quarter before producing a record-breaking 51-point performance to win Game 7 at the TD Garden.

Miami's postseason almost ended before it even began. After a 116-105 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the Play-In Tournament, the Heat were three minutes away from being eliminated by the Chicago Bulls. They rallied, ending the game on a 9-0 run to set up a first-round battle with the Milwaukee Bucks.

A Giannis Antetokounmpo injury in Game 1 opened the door for the Heat, and they stepped through it, winning the series in five games with multiple clutch performances from Butler. Antetokounmpo returned for Games 4 and 5 but couldn't stop a Miami offense that averaged 124 points per game during the series. Against the Knicks, the Heat's scoring slowed down, but their defense improved. Miami held New York to just 100.5 points per game, stealing Game 1 at Madison Square Garden and remaining perfect at home to win the series in six games.

Looking at the four sides remaining in the playoffs, the Celtics are an outlier. They are the only team that has lost a game at home this postseason. Miami, the Denver Nuggets, and the Los Angeles Lakers are all a perfect 6-0 at home during these playoffs. Boston is 4-3, with three of their five losses this postseason coming at TD Garden.

They have survived that with exceptional play on the road. Of the remaining teams, Boston is the only one with a winning record on the road (4-2). They average more points per game on the road (117.2) than at home (114.1), and they lead the postseason in three-point shooting percentage away from home (40.6%).

It's possible the Celtics' dominant Game 7 victory at home over Philadelphia marks a turning point for them at the TD Garden, but it's also possible their struggles return. The Heat are an experienced side and should make things difficult for Boston. They also own the second-best away record of the remaining teams (3-3).

In last year's series, these two sides both struggled at home. The Heat lost a pivotal Game 5 in Miami before the Celtics failed to close things out in Boston in Game 6, and Miami ultimately lost Game 7 on their home floor. The Heat also entered that series undefeated at home.

This year, Boston will have the first chance to secure a victory at home, with Game 1 set for Wednesday at 8:30 PM on TNT. As it stands, the Celtics are the favorites to win Game 1 (-350), the series, and the NBA Finals (-105).

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.