Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Wurth 400 in Texas

Even though Texas Motor Speedway is fast, you can still get some surprises up front.

In three Next-Gen races at the track, the incident rate has been relatively high. It was due to tire issues in 2022, but even with that fixed the past two years, we've still seen quality drivers encounter issues. It opens up win and top-10 upside for drivers who may not have the same giddy-up as the front-runners.

That's where I'm seeing most of the value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds: drivers outside the top crop who could benefit if we continue to see some chaos. And based on how things have gone, I'm willing to buy into the model.

Let's start things off by laying out my model's pre-practice simulations for the race, and then we can check out my favorite bets for Sunday's Wurth 400.

NASCAR Predictions for Texas

NASCAR Betting Picks for Texas

Alex Bowman to Win (+2500); Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+330)

Alex Bowman enters Texas on a heater, having finished top-10 in six straight races on 1.5-mile tracks. He has shown enough upside in that span for me to think he can contend for the win.

In those six races, Bowman has a pair of top-fives, one in Homestead and one in Las Vegas. Perhaps more impressively, his average running position in Homestead was fourth, and he was leading with only a couple of laps left. He has had a top-seven average running position in four of six races in this span.

Texas has not been kind to Bowman, who has wrecked out of three of the past six races here. He did, though, lead 43 laps and finish fifth in 2020, so he can get the job done if things don't get away from him. I'm way above market on Bowman across the board, so I'm comfortable with both a win and a top-five bet this week.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+380)

Although the chaos angle helps for these longer-shot top-10s, AJ Allmendinger has shown he doesn't need competitors to wreck to finish well.

The Cup Series has run two races at 1.5-mile tracks this year. Allmendinger finished top-10 in both, and he validated those runs with a top-11 average running position.

Texas also is a quality track for him. He logged a pair of top-fives here in the Xfinity Series in 2022 and 2024, and he qualified sixth for the 2023 Cup race. I've got him at 24.8% to finish top 10, up from 20.8% implied.

Ryan Preece to Finish Top 10 (+550)

Similar to Allmendinger, the form on Ryan Preece says his odds shouldn't be this long.

Preece's first year with RFK Racing has been a rousing success. He finished third in Las Vegas and ninth in Homestead, building on form he established late in 2024 with Stewart-Haas Racing. He finished 10th in Homestead, the final 1.5-mile race of the season and his best run of the year.

If you give Preece a good enough vehicle, he can run well in Texas. He finished third here in the Truck Series in 2022, and he was a respectable 12th in Cup last year. Now with the form ascending, I've got him at 19.0% for a top 10, up from 15.4% implied.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+1200)

Zane Smith seemed to right the ship mid-way through 2024, and he has carried those gains into his return to Front Row Motorsports.

Most of Smith's lone season with Spire was a nightmare, which is why he had to change teams. In the latter part of the year, though, he was 10th in Kansas and 16th in Vegas, easily his two best runs on 1.5-mile tracks for the season.

This year, Smith has finished 11th in Homestead and 12th in Darlington, another intermediate track. It seems like he has the speed for a top-10, and that's not reflected in the market.

Some of those struggles are still in the model, which is why Smith's top 10 odds are just 12.1%. But with the market putting him at 7.7%, Smith's a quality bet as things stand.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.