Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Wurth 400 in Texas

Even though Texas Motor Speedway is fast, you can still get some surprises up front.

In three Next-Gen races at the track, the incident rate has been relatively high. It was due to tire issues in 2022, but even with that fixed the past two years, we've still seen quality drivers encounter issues. It opens up win and top-10 upside for drivers who may not have the same giddy-up as the front-runners.

That's where I'm seeing most of the value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds: drivers outside the top crop who could benefit if we continue to see some chaos. And based on how things have gone, I'm willing to buy into the model.

Let's start things off by laying out my model's pre-practice simulations for the race, and then we can check out my favorite bets for Sunday's Wurth 400.

(UPDATE: The sims have since been updated after practice and qualifying.)

NASCAR Predictions for Texas

NASCAR Betting Picks for Texas

Alex Bowman to Win (+2500); Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+330)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +2200 to win and +280 to finish top 5. He was strong on Saturday, so I'm still well above market in both. Bowman's my favorite bet on the board as things stand.)

Alex Bowman enters Texas on a heater, having finished top-10 in six straight races on 1.5-mile tracks. He has shown enough upside in that span for me to think he can contend for the win.

In those six races, Bowman has a pair of top-fives, one in Homestead and one in Las Vegas. Perhaps more impressively, his average running position in Homestead was fourth, and he was leading with only a couple of laps left. He has had a top-seven average running position in four of six races in this span.

Texas has not been kind to Bowman, who has wrecked out of three of the past six races here. He did, though, lead 43 laps and finish fifth in 2020, so he can get the job done if things don't get away from him. I'm way above market on Bowman across the board, so I'm comfortable with both a win and a top-five bet this week.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+380)

(UPDATE: Allmendinger has since shortened to +370 to finish top 10. Frankly, he should have shortened more after he flashed elite speed in practice on Saturday. I think my model is too high on Allmendinger -- specifically in upside markets -- but +370 is a phenomenal number as things stand.)

Although the chaos angle helps for these longer-shot top-10s, AJ Allmendinger has shown he doesn't need competitors to wreck to finish well.

The Cup Series has run two races at 1.5-mile tracks this year. Allmendinger finished top-10 in both, and he validated those runs with a top-11 average running position.

Texas also is a quality track for him. He logged a pair of top-fives here in the Xfinity Series in 2022 and 2024, and he qualified sixth for the 2023 Cup race. I've got him at 24.8% to finish top 10, up from 20.8% implied.

Ryan Preece to Finish Top 10 (+550)

(UPDATE: Preece has since shortened to +310 to finish top 10. His speed in practice wasn't great, though, so I wouldn't recommend betting Preece at this new number.)

Similar to Allmendinger, the form on Ryan Preece says his odds shouldn't be this long.

Preece's first year with RFK Racing has been a rousing success. He finished third in Las Vegas and ninth in Homestead, building on form he established late in 2024 with Stewart-Haas Racing. He finished 10th in Homestead, the final 1.5-mile race of the season and his best run of the year.

If you give Preece a good enough vehicle, he can run well in Texas. He finished third here in the Truck Series in 2022, and he was a respectable 12th in Cup last year. Now with the form ascending, I've got him at 19.0% for a top 10, up from 15.4% implied.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+1200)

(UPDATE: Smith has since shortened to +800 to finish top 10. Due to the shortening, he is no longer a value by my model.)

Zane Smith seemed to right the ship mid-way through 2024, and he has carried those gains into his return to Front Row Motorsports.

Most of Smith's lone season with Spire was a nightmare, which is why he had to change teams. In the latter part of the year, though, he was 10th in Kansas and 16th in Vegas, easily his two best runs on 1.5-mile tracks for the season.

This year, Smith has finished 11th in Homestead and 12th in Darlington, another intermediate track. It seems like he has the speed for a top-10, and that's not reflected in the market.

Some of those struggles are still in the model, which is why Smith's top 10 odds are just 12.1%. But with the market putting him at 7.7%, Smith's a quality bet as things stand.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+460)

Michael McDowell qualified fifth in a race where track position is king. You'd think he'd have shortened more than he did when odds re-opened, but I'll take the discount.

McDowell had decent speed in practice, as well. He was fourth in the average speed of his five fastest laps (after making slight group speed adjustments), though he fell to 18th in the 15-lap split. Even 18th in practice is solid for this price, though.

The start to the season has been unkind to McDowell as he's still searching for his first top 10 with Spire Motorsports. Things aren't far enough off for me to ignore the value my model is showing in McDowell in this forgiving market, though.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+550)

Although Erik Jones' top 10 odds are longer than McDowell's, Jones is actually higher in my model. Thus, if you're picking just one top-10 (outside of the Allmendinger bet outlined above), Jones would be my preference.

Jones was in Group A for practice, which was the slower group, both due to the strength of the cars within it and due to track conditions at the start of practice. After accounting for those two factors, Jones ranked third in the average speed of his fastest five laps, and he was ninth in the 15-lap split. Although Jones qualified 14th, that was fifth-best among the drivers in Group A. His Saturday speed has gone overlooked due to his inclusion in the slower group.

Jones and Legacy Motor Club have seemed to make strides this year. He was top-17 in both Homestead and Darlington. Those are good tracks for him, but so is Texas. He had three top-fives here in his time with Joe Gibbs Racing, and he was sixth with Legacy in 2022 before their form hit the tubes. With some signs of life recently and quality speed Saturday, I'll buy into Jones at this number.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.