Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bet for Friday 5/16/25

Major League Baseball is a sport perfectly suited for same game parlays.

Not only do we have abundant options across the traditional markets and props for both pitchers and hitters, but plenty of those bets correlate well. Given parlays require all legs to hit, that cohesion is key.

Which SGP stands out to me tonight?

Let's dig into the Atlanta Braves at the Boston Red Sox and lay out where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB SGP for Braves at Red Sox

Leg 1: Under 8 Runs (-114)

The under is 8-1-1 over the Braves' last 10 games, but the Red Sox are a threat to force the over with the sixth-most runs per game. A starting pitcher matchup between Chris Sale and Garrett Crochet helps our case for the under, though.

Starting with Sale, he has a 3.97 ERA -- which becomes less concerning thanks to a 2.93 SIERA and 3.16 xFIP. Dominating the strikeout category has been a big piece of his game, boasting a 30.2 K% (88th percentile). The Red Sox have lacked plate discipline with the fourth-highest strikeout rate and second-highest whiff percentage. Sale also sits in the 90th percentile of whiff rate. Slugging has been a strength for Boston, holding the eighth-highest marks in isolated power and SLG, but Sale is in the 89th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed.

Crochet also sports impressive numbers with a 1.93 ERA, 3.36 SIERA, and 3.14 xFIP. Atlanta's run production has been lacking, recording the 10th-fewest runs per game. It has the 14th-lowest batting average at .241, which drops to .204 when facing left-handed hurlers (4th-lowest). The Braves are in the bottom half of runs above average against fastballs and sinkers -- two of Crochet's most-used pitches. Sitting in the 53rd and 71st percentiles of barrel and hard-hit rates is a chink in the armor for Crochet, but Atlanta has lacked power hitting with the 10th-lowest SLG.

Each team is in the top half of bullpen ERA, as well. Look for strong pitching performances to aid the under.

Leg 2: Chris Sale Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-106)

While I expect Sale to turn in another strong start, including the strikeout category, this prop just feels too high. Logging 9.3 strikeouts per contest over his past three starts is likely having a big influence on this line. However, Sale has reached eight Ks in only four of nine appearances this season.

As mentioned, the Red Sox are bound to swing and miss at times in this matchup. However, pitch usage is actually a nice advantage for Boston. Sale features a slider (46.9%) and four-seam fastball (40.8%) as his most-used tools. Boston is in the top 13 of runs above average against both pitches. Ranking third in the category against sliders is especially important; Sale's top whiff and put away rates are held by the pitch.

I'm not sure if Sale's outing is going to be long enough to reach eight strikeouts. He's pitched into the sixth inning in only three of nine appearances. Facing a dangerous batting order only harms Sale's chances of pitching late into tonight's contest.

Leg 3: Austin Riley to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

Following a slow start to begin the season, Austin Riley has been raking with a .308 batting average in April and .298 over 14 games in May. He's currently on a five-game hitting streak, and two of those games featured at least two bases.

Our MLB DFS projections have Riley totaling 2.28 bases. If correct, this has a 66.5% implied probability (or -199 odds) for at least two bases compared to +100 sitting at only 50.0% implied. Atlanta's starting third baseman has a nice individual matchup against Crochet, too.

We mentioned Crochet does have a slight weakness against sluggers thus far. Riley has logged at least a .460 SLG in every season since 2021 (including 2025 thus far). He also sits in the 91st percentiles of hard-hit rate and average exit velocity paired with the 94th percentile of bat speed.

Crochet's three most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (43.5%), cutter (27.6%), and sinker (15.1%). Riley bats .429 against cutters and .292 when seeing sinkers. His .262 average against four-seam fastballs isn't too shabby either. Furthermore, Riley hits .303 against southpaws compared to .282 when facing righties.

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +754

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.