Bengals at Cowboys Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football

This matchup looked a lot more attractive when it was scheduled in the offseason, but we could still have a high-scoring affair between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Bengals at Cowboys NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

It might not be reflected in Cincinnati's record, but Joe Burrow ($14,500) has been a force in fantasy football, coming in averaging the fourth-most FanDuel points per game (23.3) among all players. With the Bengals consistently finding themselves in shootouts lately, he's throw for at least three touchdowns in four straight games, helping him to 30.14, 36.72, 32.04, and 23.26 FanDuel points. Burrow owns the slate's top score in our NFL DFS projections, and his passing yardage prop line is set at a lofty 270.5. Given his recent performances, he'll presumably be quite popular at MVP.

Chase Brown ($12,500) has the second-best projection, and his workload has been elite since he took over the backfield following the Zack Moss injury. Over the last four games, Brown has averaged 31.5 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and 123.5 scrimmage yards per game while logging 88.2% of the red zone carries. He could go absolutely bonkers against a Dallas team that's 32nd in schedule-adjusted rush defense and has given up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to RBs.

If Burrow goes off, it stands to reason that Ja'Marr Chase ($15,500) and/or Tee Higgins ($13,000) will also have a big game. While it's Chase who's stolen the headlines at times with some absurd fantasy scores, in the seven games the two have played together, it's actually Higgins who's held the edge in both target share (28.7% to 24.9%) and air yards share (38.6% to 32.1%). Ja'Marr has still come out ahead in yards per route run (2.60 to 2.27) across that sample, though. In any case, both have shown a high ceiling, and we should feel confident rostering either one in the multiplier slot.

On the Cowboys, Cooper Rush ($11,500), Rico Dowdle ($11,000), and CeeDee Lamb ($14,000) are all projected for double-digit points.

Rush hasn't been particularly efficient, averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt and -0.19 expected points added per drop back, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That being said, he's up against a team that's 29th in adjusted pass defense and has coughed up the most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. It's hard to see Rush besting all of the Bengals' star players, but he'll probably see a low MVP roster percentage for a QB, giving him some added intrigue for tournaments.

Dowdle's seen an uptick in work over the latter half of the season, earning 24, 18, 20, 25, and 28 adjusted opportunities across the last five games, and he's fresh off a season-best 22.8 FanDuel points. Game script could be a factor if the Bengals pull away, but if this stays competitive, he could take advantage of the 27th-ranked adjusted rush defense.

While Lamb doesn't have an injury designation, he's been banged up for weeks and most recently failed to finish his Week 13 game due to a shoulder injury. Still, in the other three games with Rush, he's led the team with a 29.8% target share and 50.0% red zone target share. His recent ailments make him a shakier bet at MVP, but he's projected for the matchup's most targets (9.9).

Flex Targets

Brandin Cooks ($10,500) -- Although it comes with the caveat that CeeDee Lamb was limited last week due to his shoulder issue, Cooks led the Cowboys with 7 targets in his return, resulting in a 19.4% target share and 37.6% air yards share. Our model projects him for 5.1 targets tonight.

Jake Ferguson ($10,000) -- Ferguson missed the past two games with a concussion but should be a full go on Monday after being taken off the injury report. In his eight full games, he's posted an 18.8% target share, and he logged a 17.2% share in his lone healthy outing with Cooper Rush. While Ferguson curiously hasn't scored a single TD this season, he's up against a defense that's allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to his position.

Andrei Iosivas ($9,500) -- Iosivas has a modest 8.9% target share when Tee Higgins is active. He's played 75.0% of the red zone snaps in that sample, though, giving him some potential as a touchdown-or-bust option.

Cade York ($9,000) and Brandon Aubrey ($8,500) -- This game has shootout potential, making the kickers secondary plays. Despite kicking for the favored side, York could be somewhat risky after going 0-for-2 on his FG attempts kicking for the Washington Commanders in Week 1 and promptly getting cut. Aubrey hasn't been quite as automatic as he was in 2023 but has still been one of fantasy's better kickers, averaging 10.9 FanDuel points per game.

Mike Gesicki ($8,500) -- Gesicki's usage plummets with Higgins healthy (6.8% target share), making him difficult to buy into despite the appealing salary.

Jalen Tolbert ($7,500) -- If you're rolling the dice on a fringe Cowboys pass catcher, Tolbert is probably the best option after seeing the team's second-highest route rate last week (73.0%). However, he hasn't had notable box-score results with Rush at quarterback, failing to reach double-digit fantasy points in any of the four games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.