5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 5/18/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins

Over 8.5 Runs (-118)

Both team's starters in South Beach are vulnerable -- to say the least. The over seems like the best wager.

That's no surprise on the Miami Marlins' side as they trot out Cal Quantrill once again. Quantrill's 5.02 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) has come with hefty rates of hard-hit (43.8%) and barreled (11.6%) baseballs. He's permitted 1.50 HR/9. Remember, Miami's bullpen also has the worst SIERA in MLB (4.28) themselves.

However, I think it's oversold how much Shane Baz can control this one from the Tampa Bay Rays' perspective. Baz's 3.73 SIERA comes from a hefty strikeout rate (25.8%), but he's overperformed in that category when generating a whiff on just 9.9% of his pitches. Flyballs (41.9% rate), barrels (11.1%), and homers (1.47 HR/9) are a seismic issue here, too.

Both of these teams also have climbed out of MLB's bottom 10 in terms of team OPS against righties. We could see some offense after yesterday's four-run result.

Brandon Lowe to Record 2+ Total Bases (+125)

Brandon Lowe hasn't gotten what he deserves to begin 2025.

The left-handed platoon specialist is still making awesome contact despite a .706 OPS that seems closer to ordinary. He actually leads the Rays in hard-contact rate against righties (44.6%) among players with at least 100 plate appearances (PAs).

For a bases prop, I don't mind that Lowe's 7.6 BB% in the split is holding his OPS back. Free passes do nothing for me.

Projected to hit second, Lowe will have four -- and potentially five -- cracks at Quantrill and the reeling Marlins bullpen. I'll take his bases prop at higher odds than most of his teammates that have a tendency to walk more.

St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals

Cardinals Moneyline in First 5 Innings (-114)

The dreadful Kansas City Royals offense could stumble early again on Sunday.

Kansas City has mustered just a 67 wRC+ (26th in MLB) against left-handed pitching to start the season. They're not striking out much (22.0%), but that especially puts them in harm's way against a southpaw that doesn't mind inducing weak contact. Former top prospect Matthew Liberatore's 3.39 SIERA and 22.8% strikeout rate are both pacing as career-highs, too.

On the other side of this pitching matchup is Michael Wacha. Wacha is no stranger to overperforming his peripherals, but the gap in ERA (2.96) and SIERA (4.51) is quite pronounced against a St. Louis Cardinals offense that's team OPS against righties (.760) is fourth in baseball.

Frankly, the full-game moneyline is a bit sketchy given these pronounced advantages, but the Cards are the significantly better side on both sides of the diamond. I'll dodge what could be bullpen antics and trust Liberatore, who is -120 to go six full innings, to guide St. Louis to an early lead.

Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers -1.5 (-118)

The 19-25 Los Angeles Angels are only +100 to cover a run against the 29-17 Los Angeles Dodgers? What a ripoff.

That might have to do with the Halos' surprise win last night, which came opposite a bullpen game behind a limited Clayton Kershaw. Today, the Angels' offense will have to navigate Tony Gonsolin, who could be looking at an All-Star campaign if his 2.71 SIERA and 33.3% K rate continue to hold through the start of summer.

I'm not optimistic when the visitors' team OPS against righties (.694) is ninth-worst in baseball.

Meanwhile, the star-studded Dodgers get a crack at Yusei Kikuchi, who has blown up in softer conditions. The lefty's 4.53 SIERA comes with troubling contact splits we'll examine in a moment.

Despite yesterday's blowout, the Angels' bullpen (3.75 SIERA) might also lose ground to the Dodgers' (3.10). I think L.A. -- the blue side -- gets back on track Sunday.

Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+450)

One of the ways they might is Will Smith joining a party he was left out of during last night's 20-run bonanza.

Smith didn't go yard, which isn't a surprise considering just three bombs on the season. He's just mashing southpaws right now to the extent that home runs -- a lot of them -- will come with this sort of proficiency. The catcher has a 1.291 OPS, .357 ISO, 60.0% (!) flyball rate, and 40.0% hard-hit rate across 37 PAs against left-handers. The loft is particularly puzzling to reconcile with a shortage of dingers.

At MLB's second-best park for home runs, Kikuchi can help. He's got elevated flyball (39.6%) and barrel (10.3%) rates allowed, wrapping into 1.66 HR/9 allowed to right-handers this year. Kikuchi hasn't surrendered a home run to a lefty all season, so Shohei Ohtani might not be the best option today.

L.A.'s catcher will make more jogs around the basepaths if he keeps swatting balls like he is now. This is a great number to buy potential regression on Sunday -- especially when a 21.3 BB% in the split makes a bases prop tough to justify.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.