4 Running Back Busts to Avoid: Jonathan Taylor Has Too Many Question Marks in 2023

Avoiding players who fail to live up to their fantasy football draft capital is nearly as important as selecting players who come through. Today, we'll look at some running backs who may not live up to the hype this season.

Due to injuries and how dependent running backs are on the system around them, the position tends to have a lot of busts. Here are four running backs who could bust this season.

All average draft position (ADP) data comes via FantasyPros' half-PPR ADP.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

ADP: RB5 (12th Overall)

The first thing to note is that all four of these players are very talented and are capable of having a good year if things break right. But all four carry legitimate concerns and are tough to stomach at their current ADPs.

The talent is obvious for Jonathan Taylor, who tore up the league in 2021. That year, he led the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards and scored 20 touchdowns.

But the circumstances around Taylor have changed -- mostly for the worse.

With new quarterback Anthony Richardson likely taking over as the starter, that could lessen JT's already shaky pass-game usage. Richardson is a dual-threat QB and is more likely to take off and run than throw short to a running back. Taylor hasn't ever been a huge pass-catcher out of the backfield anyway, peaking at 10.3% of targets in 2021. That could fall even further this season.

Richardson could also be a force on goal-line runs, which could steal TDs away from Taylor.

These are issues on the field for Taylor, but there are also off-field issues we need to consider. He currently is not practicing due to an ankle injury, an ankle he had surgery on in the offseason.

This has led to a lot of tension between Taylor and the Colts' front office. Owner Jim Irsay has had his say on the ongoing discussion about running back values. He has been in a public battle with Taylor's agent, and Taylor even requested a trade.

It's unlikely for anyone to hold out under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but there are a few scenarios where this issue could cause Taylor to miss games. If he is on the active roster or PUP list for six games, he would accrue a season and then become a free agent after this year. If Taylor is still upset with the front office, in theory, he could stop playing for the team after that.

A trade would really depend on the landing spot to determine its impact on his fantasy value. There aren't a lot of teams out there looking to add a running back in the current landscape, and Taylor could end up on a team that isn't as committed to giving him the ball as the Indianapolis Colts have been in the past.

All in all, there are a bit too many risks for me to take Taylor with a first-round pick, and as things stand now, I'll be looking elsewhere if I'm picking at the end of the first.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

ADP: RB11 (26th Overall)

Najee Harris contradicts some of the accepted wisdom developed in recent years in fantasy football.

We've learned that running back fantasy scoring is much more dependent on volume than talent. Harris saw the sixth-most touches at the running back position in 2022 but couldn't crack the top 10 in fantasy points. He was the RB14 overall and the RB17 by points per game.

Harris led all running backs with 74 catches in his rookie year of 2021. With the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, the Pittsburgh Steelers saw fewer dump-offs in their offense. As such, Harris' catches decreased to just 41 in 2022.

A lack of big plays also limited Harris' fantasy appeal. He had just one carry for more than 20 yards all season last year. His breakaway run percentage was 2.6%, which ranked 51st in the NFL.

We saw Jaylen Warren get more work at the end of the season. He got at least 30% of the snaps in every game after Week 14 and got up to a 42% snap share in Week 18. Reports this summer have said that Warren could see more touches this season.

It can be a worrying sign when the main thing we point to as a running back's appeal is guaranteed touches. Oftentimes, those touches aren't as guaranteed as we think.

Those worrying signs are enough for me to stay away from Harris at his current ADP of 26th overall.

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: RB12 (28th overall)

We finally saw Travis Etienne get on the field during the regular season in 2022 after he was drafted in the first round in 2021 but missed all of his rookie season due to injury.

Etienne definitely showed why he was selected so high, running for 1,125 yards. By more advanced data, he also looked good, ranking third in rush yards over expected per attempt.

There were, however, some things to be concerned about for fantasy. His usage in the passing game was sold to the public by Urban Meyer as a reason the Jacksonville Jaguars selected him in the first round. However, when Etienne actually got on the field under a new regime, he wasn't utilized in that role effectively.

Etienne saw a target on just 14.2% of his routes in 2022. He had a catch rate of 77.8%, which, for a player with an average depth of target of -0.01 yard, is pretty low. He caught just 35 passes total. Over a 17-game season, that amounts to just over two per game.

Another potential concern for Etienne is the Jags' selection of Tank Bigsby in the third round. Bigsby has been impressing in training camp -- particularly in the passing game. Reports out of camp suggest he could have a big role in the offense.

Bigsby could take over the goal-line role, being the bigger back. Etienne wasn't too good when he received carries inside the five-yard line, scoring touchdowns just 23.1% of the time.

If Bigsby eats into Etienne's goal-line role and pass-game work, that will be a big blow to Etienne's fantasy outlook.

Etienne is currently being drafted as the RB12. That's ahead of Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs and Joe Mixon -- all of whom I would rather have than Etienne as long as Hall is healthy.

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: RB20 (52nd Overall)

J.K. Dobbins is a talented running back in a situation with extenuating circumstances that make him tough to love in fantasy at this ADP.

Dobbins has been dealing with injuries to his knee since he tore his ACL in August 2021. He's played only eight games since that injury and has suffered numerous setbacks. He opened training camp this summer on the PUP list, which can't make anyone feel good given his injury history.

It's not just injuries that we need to be concerned about with Dobbins. He is not used much as a pass-catcher, seeing just 38 targets across 24 NFL games. The Baltimore Ravens are expected to pass more this season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, but it's fairly unlikely that Dobbins will see a huge target share.

Dobbins has the same issues as Jonathan Taylor with his mobile quarterback. Lamar Jackson hasn't targeted running backs at a high rate in his career and likes to scramble when in trouble rather than check down. That's likely a big reason why Dobbins doesn't have many catches in his career.

Lamar's rushing also hurts Dobbins around the goal line. The quarterback has taken at least 20% of the red-zone carries every season since coming into the league. Then there is Gus Edwards, a powerful back who is effective in short-yardage situations. He is also a candidate to take goal-line work, so there are at least two players there to pilfer touchdowns away from Dobbins.

All of these red flags make the RB20 spot way too high for Dobbins. A player like Alexander Mattison -- who is going one spot after Dobbins -- has way fewer concerns and will play on an offense that is likely to be above average.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.