3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 5/17/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-126)

The Philadelphia Phillies backed up the Brinks truck in the offseason, awarding Zack Wheeler with the fourth-largest annual salary in league history. The one-time All-Star has proven the deal was worth it so far as he carries the shortest odds to win the National League Cy Young award (+350), per FanDuel's MLB award odds.

Through nine starts, Wheeler is holding a career-high 2.88 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). After finishing in at least the 74th percentile of strikeout percentage (K%) for three straight seasons, he's also maintained his impressive K numbers (87th percentile in K%).

Tonight's battle against the Washington Nationals has a 6.5 strikeout total for Wheeler. Despite failing to reach seven Ks in two of his last three starts, I still think Wheeler has the stuff for this number to go over 6.5.

Most importantly, the Nationals do not hit well against Wheeler's best pitch. The Phillies' ace has a usage rate of 59.9% for his fastball, and this has increased to 67.6% and 68.8% over his previous two starts. Washington has the seventh-lowest runs above average against fastballs and the third-lowest mark in this category when facing splitters. Wheeler's splitter has the second-highest K% among his pitches (37.5%).

While the Nats have the 12th-lowest K%, their strikeout numbers are up with Washington reaching double-digit Ks in two of their last three contests.

Wheeler has been elite in the strikeout department, and the Nationals struggle against some of his most common pitches. Reaching seven strikeouts looks likely for Philly's star pitcher.

Tyler Anderson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)

The Los Angeles Angels' Tyler Anderson ranks in the bottom 21% of K%, but he's averaging 5.5 strikeouts per stat over his last four appearances. This production would easily put Anderson over 4.5.

However, he's got a tough matchup on the slate against the Texas Rangers -- the defending World Series champions. The Rangers currently have the ninth-lowest K% in baseball and have been under five strikeouts in two of their last four games.

Anderson is enjoying a season similar to his All-Star appearance in 2022. He has a 2.92 ERA and 1.135 WHIP compared to a 2.57 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 2022. However, his SIERA hasn't been up to snuff at 4.78. This isn't anything special as his career-average is a 4.47 SIERA.

After posting a 1.78 ERA over his first five starts, we are starting to see Anderson come back to Earth with a 4.74 ERA over his last three games. The Rangers remain a dangerous batting order, holding the ninth-most runs in baseball.

Two of Anderson's three most-used pitchers are cutters and changeups. Texas is among the top 16 highest runs above average against these pitchers.

Anderson has consistently had low K numbers since 2020, and the Rangers have been a tough team to strikeout. Pair this with Texas' ability to hit cutters and changeups, and we have an under brewing for Anderson.

Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)

I'm targeting another strikeout prop for a Cy Young contender in Tarik Skubal, who has the shortest odds to win the American League's award (+230). Similar to Wheeler, Skubal has elite strikeout numbers across the board, ranking in the 92nd percentile of K%, 87th percentile in whiff rate, and 95th percentile in chase rate.

Skubal is facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are tied for the fifth-lowest K%. This causes understandable hesitation, but Skubal has the pitches to make Arizona pay.

The D-backs are tied for the fifth-fewest runs above average against sliders and have the second-lowest mark when facing changeups. Which pitches are producing the highest K% for Skubal? You guessed it, his slider (33.3%) and changeup (39.3%).

His changeup usage has also spiked over his last three starts. Skubal had usage rates of only 22.1% and 23.3% on April 17th and April 22nd. Since, his usage for the changeup finished at 31.9%, 33.3%, and 29.9%; all three marks are well above his season-long mark of 27.9%. Considering Arizona's struggles against changeups, I highly doubt that Skubal's usage rate comes down.

One of the few weaknesses for Skubal has been ranking in the 54th percentile of ground ball percentage. He could even flourish in this category with the Diamondbacks tied for the fifth-highest ground ball percentage against lefties.

Skubal has the tools to make Arizona look silly, and he seems poised for a deep start, for the Tigers' southpaw has completed six innings of work in seven of eight starts in 2024. FanDuel Research's projections are forecasting 7.20 Ks for Skubal. I'm confidently taking the over for Skubal with the juicy +114 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.