3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 4/30/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 4/30/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Dean Kremer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-112)

The Baltimore Orioles' Dean Kremer comes off an electric performance with 10 strikeouts while allowing two runs in about five innings of work. This was Kremer's highest strikeout total of the season by a landslide after averaging 4.3 Ks over his previous four starts. Will Kremer continue his hot streak or go back to his usual numbers?

I'm going with the latter as the New York Yankees feature an exceptional batting order. The Yanks have totaled the sixth-most runs and have the third-highest on base percentage (OBP). After tying for the 10th-highest strikeout percentage (K%) last season, New York currently has the 6th-lowest K% in baseball.

Kremer's strikeout rate is unusually high at 23.7% (56th percentile). He's failed to reach 21.5% in the category over the last three seasons, finishing among the bottom 34% in each season. I believe this K% could slowly drop as the season progresses, starting with tonight's matchup against the Yankees.

New York carries the 10th-lowest ground ball percentage and totals the 4th-most home runs per game. Both categories could point to a brief start for Kremer, who ranked in the bottom half of hard-hit percentage from 2020 to 2023 and is currently in the bottom 40% of ground ball percentage.

Cole Ragans Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-132)

Cole Ragans has been excellent for the Kansas City Royals, holding a 3.29 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's also shined in the strikeout department, ranking in the 75th percentile of K%, 80th percentile of whiff percentage, and 72nd percentile of chase rate.

The left-handed starter is averaging 5.3 Ks per start over his last three appearances. Ragans will face a different beast in the Toronto Blue Jays. This team has built a reputation for avoiding Ks as they had the sixth-lowest K% in the MLB last season.

Toronto is carrying similar numbers with the seventh-lowest K%. They are even better against lefties, dropping their 20.0 K% to 16.8% (fourth-lowest). The Jays have logged eight or fewer strikeouts in seven of their previous eight contests. For reference, 8.00 strikeouts per game is the 11th-best mark among batting orders.

Ragans pitched against the Blue Jays on April 25th and failed to gather a flashy strikeout total, finishing with four Ks. I believe we will see a similar result tonight with Ragans going under 5.5 strikeouts.

Yu Darvish Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+128)

The Cincinnati Reds against the San Diego Padres presents exceptional value for strikeout props. It starts and ends with Yu Darvish.

It's been a shaky start for the veteran starter as he carries a 4.34 SIERA -- which is on par for a career-worst mark. Darvish has also severely lacked when it comes to stacking strikeouts. We saw Darvish rank in the 84th percentile of K% in 2021, then the 68th and 58th percentiles over the last two seasons. This steady drop has continued with Yu currently in the bottom 46% of K%.

However, the veteran pitcher has a favorable matchup against the Reds. Cincinnati has the fourth-highest K% in baseball. The Redlegs have struck out at least 12 times in 3 of their last 5 games; that tells you enough.

Darvish is not the same pitcher as he used to be, and it will likely stay that way for the 37-year-old hurler. However, I'm looking for the veteran to tap into his old ways against a swing happy batting order.

FanDuel's projections are also forecasting a 6.12 K total for Darvish. The +128 odds for the over holds excellent value, especially when you consider the model's projections.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.