3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/8/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/8/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB Strikeout Prop Bets

Nestor Cortes Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

The New York Yankees are off to an electric 8-2 start, which is tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates as the best record in baseball. The Yanks have a great chance to keep rolling against the Miami Marlins, who sit at 1-9 and became the first team to start 0-9 since the 2016 season.

Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the third time this season. Despite early struggles, the Marlins are still not striking out at a high rate. Miami is tied for the 11th-best mark in strikeout percentage (K%) at 21.9%. This isn't out of character for the Marlins, either, for they had a 21.3 K% last season (eighth-best).

Through two starts, Cortes has a 6.30 earned run average (ERA) while totaling only 3.5 strikeouts per start. The seven-year vet has a dreadful 15.2 K% to start the season. This number will likely rise as the season progresses; Cortes posted at least a 25.2 K% over the previous three seasons.

Still, the lefty was not elite when it came to Ks in 2023, ranking in the 64th percentile of K%. Plus, Cortes was in the bottom 17% of chase rate and bottom 37% in whiff percentage.

The Marlins had the eighth-best K% against left-handed pitchers last season (21.6%). I expect Cortes to finish under 5.5 strikeouts tonight.

Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Strikeouts could be lacking in this matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates. Each team is off to excellent starts, but Monday's starters have lacked eye-popping K totals thus far. Detroit's Reese Olson reached three strikeouts in his first start of the season, and Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller is averaging 4.0 Ks per outing following two appearances.

The Tigers come off a three-game series against the Oakland Athletics in which they totaled only 6.7 Ks per game. For reference, the Cleveland Guardians led the MLB last season with 7.0 strikeouts per game. Of course, this caused Detroit's K% to dramatically improve, jumping to the 16th-best mark (22.4%).

I believe the Tigers could keep avoiding Ks against the Pirates' Keller. The one-time All-Star has a 6.55 ERA and an alarming 1.727 WHIP following two starts. Keller's numbers in 2023 looked quite similar to the Yankees' Cortes. Pittsburgh's starter ranked in the 65th percentile in K% while sitting in the bottom 29% in whiff rate and bottom 26% in chase rate.

Detroit is currently in the top half of swinging-strike percentage and percentages of pitches chased outside of the strike zone. I don't expect Keller's K total to suddenly jump after posting only eight strikeouts through two contests. The +100 odds for the under only sweetens the deal.

Aaron Ashby Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)

Aaron Ashby will make his first start for the Milwaukee Brewers since October of 2022. He missed most of the 2023 season recovering from shoulder surgery. Ashby made one appearance in AAA this season, striking out five batters in five innings of work.

The biggest concern for Ashby's strikeout total could be his pitch count. This is his first start in the majors in well over a year, but reaching 77 pitches in his last start provides some comfort.

The upside for the lefty's strikeout total is certainly there. In the 2022 season, Ashby was in the 73rd percentile in K% and 75th percentile of whiff rate.

There's risk involved for the over, but the Cincinnati Reds are an ideal matchup. The Reds have the worst K% in baseball thus far (28.7%). Cincinnati is also carrying the eighth-worst swinging-strike percentage (12.1%), which plays right into Ashby's exceptional whiff rate from the 2022 season.

Ashby proved he could last at least five innings in the minors, which could be enough to go over 5.5 strikeouts. Additionally, the Reds are logging 11.0 Ks per game (worst in baseball) and averaged 11.7 strikeouts per contest in their last series against the New York Mets.

With the over at +104, I'm willing to take the risk on Ashby's strikeouts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.