3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Friday 4/12/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Friday 4/12/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Kevin Gausman Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+104)

Part of the challenge of targeting strikeout props early in the season is deciding how to view current stats. Anything we would look at right now is a small sample size with most teams only 12 or 13 games into the 162-game season. This small sample size is even more relevant for pitchers who have appeared in only two or three contests.

In Kevin Gausman's case, it seems wise to take his current numbers with a grain of salt. He is in the bottom 49% in strikeout percentage (K%). This is very out of character as Gausman was in at least the 83rd percentile of K% from 2020 to 2023. More than likely, his strikeout numbers will spike after a slow start.

FanDuel seems to be in agreement, as the Toronto Blue Jays' starter is carrying a 7.5-K total for tonight's clash with the Colorado Rockies. This is about as high as it gets, and I still like the over thanks to Gausman's favorable matchup.

The Rockies had the second-worst swinging percentage at pitches outside of the strike zone last season and ranked last in swinging-strike percentage. Considering these marks, it's not surprising that Colorado also had the third-worst K%. The Rockies are still in the bottom seven of each category early in the 2024 season.

Colorado's tendency to regularly swing and miss while also chasing pitches should allow Gausman to rebound. The two-time All-Star is in the bottom 54% in whiff rate and bottom 46% in chase rate; he ranked in the 71st percentile of whiff rate and in the 87th percentile of chase rate in 2023. I expect Gausman to boost these numbers tonight while also reaching at least eight strikeouts.

Luis Severino Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)

An initial dive into the Kansas City Royals' strikeout numbers may suggest that the under is the best bet for Luis Severino. The Royals weren't that bad in K% last season (13th-worst), and they are currently tied for the 7th-best mark in the category.

However, Kansas City frequently chases pitches outside of the strike zone. They had the seventh-worst chase rate last season and are tied for the sixth-worst mark right now. This could be Severino's path to success.

The New York Mets signed Severino to a one-year deal in the offseason. It was a risky move with the $13 million price tag after he struggled in 2023. Severino had career-lows with a 6.65 ERA and 1.646 WHIP over 18 starts last season.

Through two starts, he looks like the Severino of old. He's carrying a skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of 2.74 -- his best mark since 2018. He missed most of the 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons. Over his previous four seasons -- 2017, 2018, 2022, and 2023 -- Severino ranked at least in the 79th percentile of K% in three seasons. His worst mark? He sat in the bottom 19% in K% last season.

Severino has logged 13 strikeouts through 2 outings, reaching at least 6 Ks in both starts. As previously mentioned, he could flourish due to the Royals constantly chasing pitches outside of the strike zone. This is exactly what Severino wants, for he ranks in the 80th percentile of chase rate thus far.

I like the Mets' starter to reach the six-strikeout mark for his third straight game -- especially with the odds at +110.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-142)

Los Angeles Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto came into his rookie season with sky-high expectations. He had a rough Dodgers debut, pitching only one inning before being pulled against the San Diego Padres.

Over his last two starts, Yamamoto has shown the hype was worthy. He remains the betting favorite to win National Rookie of the Year (+260), per FanDuel's MLB award odds. Yamamoto has not allowed a run in back-to-back starts while totaling 13 strikeouts. He has the opportunity for a revenge game against the Padres on Friday.

There's not much to look at when it comes to Yamamoto. A lot of this could be more of a "gut feeling" after he spent his previous seven seasons in Japan. So far, Yamamoto has proven he can make batters swing and miss, ranking in the 86th percentile in K% and 81st percentile in whiff percentage.

San Diego was in the top eight of K% last season and currently hold the seventh-best mark in the metric. Still, Yamamoto reaching five strikeouts isn't a tall order. Even when he was pulled in the first inning in his debut, the Dodgers' rookie still reached two Ks. He's averaging about 1.4 strikeouts per inning pitched through three starts.

Give me Yamamoto for the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.