3 NHL Best Bets for Wednesday 10/16/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Los Angeles Kings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs Moneyline -172

Things couldn’t have gone any worse for the Los Angeles Kings on Monday afternoon. The Pacific Division contenders scored seven goals against the Ottawa Senators but still managed to come out on the losing end. Surely, that’s a sign of things to come as the Kings take on the high-octane Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night.

It’s not just the score that was lopsided; LA abandoned all defensive responsibility during the loss. The Kings gave up 28 scoring opportunities and 31 shots at five-on-five, getting out-chanced by a substantive margin in both categories. Moreover, they posted a lackadaisical 36.5% Corsi rating, all of which contributed to a 39.3% expected goals-for rating. Playing in their fourth straight road game to open the year, we’re not expecting those metrics to improve against the Leafs.

Their record may not reflect it, but Toronto remains an analytics powerhouse. The Leafs have outplayed all three opponents to open the season, resulting in a 66.8% expected goals-for rating. As expected, elite offensive play is the foundation of their success, with the Maple Leafs averaging north of 10.0 high-danger chances per game. Still, that hasn’t come at the expense of their defensive structure, as they’re limiting their opponents to a minuscule 4.0 quality chances per game.

The Kings were out-matched against a feisty Sens team, but they will be embarrassed by the Leafs’ offensive prowess. This price doesn’t reflect the on-ice discrepancies between these two teams, yielding an implied advantage in backing the Leafs.

Utah Hockey Club vs. Anaheim Ducks

Ducks Moneyline +125

The Utah Hockey Club’s NHL tenure got off to a promising start. They won three straight to open the year, a feat their former iteration didn’t accomplish until the end of November last season. However, Utah overachieved relative to their underlying metrics, positioning them for regression over their coming games. Coupled with a daunting schedule, they’re undeserving of their chalky moneyline price against the Anaheim Ducks.

Utah had the luxury of opening its season on home ice before embarking on a four-game road trip. They headed out east for three games before traveling clear across the country for tonight’s showdown against the Ducks. That alone puts the Utah Hockey Club at a disadvantage, which will be compounded by underwhelming metrics. UHC has been outplayed in three of its first four games, resulting in a 47.9% expected goals-for rating. A cooling-off period is anticipated as their metrics balance out over the coming games.

The Ducks will be well-rested and prepared for this Western Conference showdown. This is just their third game of the season, with the Ducks last skating Sunday afternoon against the Vegas Golden Knights. In that contest, Anaheim put up 14 high-danger and 28 scoring chances, out-chancing the Knights in both categories. Flush with young talent, it was just a matter of time before it all came together for the Ducks, and we’re seeing that play out early this season.

While the betting price doesn’t reflect it, circumstances favor the Ducks in this one. They are a superior analytics team with a home-ice advantage. Utah’s on the verge of regression, and should fall short against the Ducks.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 6.5 -102

The betting market continues to undervalue the Pittsburgh Penguins offense. Coming off a decisive 6-3 victory and with 14 goals over their last three games, the Pens are showing they can still drive scoring. However, the over in Wednesday night’s showdown against the Buffalo Sabres is still listed at almost even odds. Fans of high-scoring hockey should be ready to play that implied advantage in what should be another wildly entertaining affair.

Pittsburgh’s output is validated by elite production metrics. The Pens have exceeded 12 high-danger chances in three of their first four games. More importantly, they are cashing in on those attempts, recording 11 high-danger goals across their past three. We’re betting that upward trajectory continues against a Sabres team that hasn’t been effective at defending outside of their friendly confines.

Buffalo played two games overseas to open the year, giving up 18 high-danger chances across those two outings. That’s an extension of last season’s metrics, in which they gave up 10.2 quality chances per game. Nevertheless, the Sabres possess the offensive players to hang with the Penguins. Like their Wednesday night opponents, Buffalo has gone north of 12 high-danger opportunities in three of its first four games of the year.

These teams will be happy to trade chances all night long. And as we’ve seen, both the Penguins and Sabres have been effective at capitalizing on those opportunities. The end result should be a high-scoring game that makes its way over the 6.5 total.

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