3 NHL Best Bets for Thursday 10/24/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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New Jersey Devils vs. Detroit Red Wings

Red Wings Moneyline +128

You wouldn’t know it from their respectable records, but the New Jersey Devils and Detroit Red Wings are two of the worst analytics teams in the league.

Heading into Thursday night’s Eastern Conference showdown, the Red Wings are sitting with a sub-optimal 43.3% expected goals-for rating. New Jersey comes in moderately higher than that, checking in at 48.3%, but still doesn’t have the metrics to warrant their current betting odds.

The Devils have been humbled lately. Last time out, they were torched for eight goals, losing 8-5 to the Tampa Bay Lightning. In the game before that, they dropped a 6-5 decision to the visiting Washington Capitals. Overall, the Devils have lost three of their past four.

Worse, the underlying metrics support those outcomes. New Jersey has been out-chanced in high-danger opportunities in all but one of those contests and has been outplayed in six of its past seven.

While Detroit’s metrics are equally disappointing, the Original Six franchise has a few more factors working in its favor.

First, they benefit from home ice today and can use last change to neutralize the Devils’ top scorers. Second, they’ve been effective at preventing chances. Three of the previous five teams they’ve faced have been held to nine or fewer quality chances. Finally, the Red Wings have been out-chanced in high-danger opportunities just once over their previous four outings, so they can put forth a good offensive showing versus New Jersey.

Detroit's moneyline looks pretty good when you add all of that together.

Dallas Stars vs. Boston Bruins

Stars Moneyline -120

Over the past few years, the Boston Bruins rebuilt their lineup to replenish the lost pieces from their dynasty roster. However, Boston’s metrics have nosedived this season, putting them on the precipice of regression. That’s not a problem the Dallas Stars have to worry about as they appear to be trending in the opposite direction.

Boston has struggled to put together a quality on-ice product this season. The B’s have been outplayed in five of their seven contests, resulting in 44.4% expected goals-for rating, fourth-worst in the show. Limited offensive production has been the driving cause of the Bruins’ misfortune, and that’s unlikely to change against a stingy Stars team. Boston has been held to seven or fewer high-danger chances in five straight games, precipitating just six goals at five-on-five and three losses.

It’s been a tepid start to the year for the Stars, but they are showing signs of coming to life. Dallas has been out-chanced in high-danger opportunities just once across its last five games, averaging north of 10 quality chances per game. Still, output hasn't increased to match that additional production. The Stars have a measly 5.4% shooting percentage across the four-game sample, implying they are due for an offensive outburst.

We’re anticipating a solid offensive showing from the Stars on the road, and Boston doesn’t appear to have the offensive firepower to keep pace.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Calgary Flames

Hurricanes Moneyline -160

Off to a 5-0-1 start to the season, the Calgary Flames are vastly overachieving relative to their preseason expectations. The problem is -- they’re also outperforming their analytics, putting them on an unsustainable pace. A Carolina Hurricanes side that remains one of the best in the business can expose those flaws.

Carolina has cemented its place atop the analytics charts. The Canes have finished in the top five in expected goals-for rating in four straight seasons, currently operating with the top mark in the NHL for 2024-25. They’ve outplayed their opponents in every game this season and have yet to be out-chanced in either scoring or high-danger chances.

Unfortunately, the Flames are skating in the opposite direction. Calgary has been outplayed in two of its last three, with deteriorating offensive metrics. More concerningly, there’s a growing gap between their actual and expected goals-for benchmarks. Heading into tonight’s contest, the Flames are more than 13.0% higher than they should be. Consequently, they are poised to enter a correction phase, with actual metrics balancing with expected. Presumably, more losses will follow.

That regression may start today against a mighty Hurricanes side that has already bested some of the top teams in the league. It may be tempting to back the scorching-hot Flames as home underdogs, but Carolina is the side to be on.

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