3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Saturday 12/7/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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San Jose Sharks vs. Florida Panthers

Sharks Moneyline (+330)

The Florida Panthers are on an impressive 4-1-1 run; however, their underlying metrics contraindicate much of that success. On that basis, there’s a decided edge in backing the San Jose Sharks to pull off the unexpected upset as meaty underdogs.

Florida has recently substantially overachieved relative to its analytics. Points in five of their past six contrast with getting outplayed in three of those contests. Moreover, the Panthers’ surge in scoring is supported by an increase in production. In fact, they’ve been held to seven or fewer high-danger chances in four of six while putting up 29 goals over the six-game sample. That’s elevated their shooting percentage and PDO beyond sustainable levels, setting them up for immediate regression.

Like any young team, the Sharks are going through some growing pains. Still, some promising metrics are popping up in their recent game scores. Specifically, they’re averaging 10.2 high-danger chances per game over their past five. Additionally, that’s helped them bump their expected goals-for rating to 50.0%, a vast improvement relative to their season-long average of 44.2%.

San Jose’s +330 moneyline price has an implied probability of 23.3%. Still, we give them a much better chance of walking away victorious in this inter-conference affair. As a result, there’s value in the Sharks’ moneyline.

Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens Moneyline (+122)

Alex Ovechkin’s absence has severely impacted the Washington Capitals’ scoring ability. That puts the Caps at a disadvantage as they skate on the second night of a back-to-back against an impressive Montreal Canadiens squad.

Washington’s scoring well has run dry without Ovi in the lineup. Since their captain went down with an injury a few weeks ago, the Capitals have recorded more than two goals at five-on-five only once in eight games. That’s cratered their five-on-five shooting percentage, dropping to 7.3%, over five points off their regular season average of 12.5%. That benchmark is unlikely to improve as they skate as visitors on consecutive nights.

Further, the Capitals face a stiff challenge in figuring out Montreal’s goaltenders. Habs’ netminders have combined to allow just five goals at five-on-five over their past four outings, giving up just one goal across all strengths over their last two games. That’s sent their save percentage into another stratosphere, with Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau combining for a 94.6% save percentage at five-on-five and 91.3% across all strengths.

Montreal’s chances of winning on Saturday night are propped up by superior netminding. Given Washington’s recent offensive struggles, there’s an edge in backing the Habs to pull off the upset at home. But don’t be surprised if it comes in overtime.

St. Louis Blues vs. Edmonton Oilers

Oilers Moneyline (-275)

This game has been circled on the Edmonton Oilers calendar for a long time. The St. Louis Blues offer-sheeted two of their best young players this past offseason, poaching Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. This is Edmonton’s chance to exact revenge, and we expect them to take full advantage of it.

Narrative aside, the Oilers have seen a dramatic increase in their analytics standing. Over their past three games, Edmonton has generated an impressive 62.8% expected goals-for rating, outplaying all three opponents. Most importantly, their offense is regaining their confidence. The Oilers are up to 33 high-danger and 73 scoring opportunities across the modest sample, precipitating an increase in scoring.

Since their coaching change, the Blues’ metrics are trending in the opposite direction. St. Louis has been handily outplayed in three of its previous four, yielding a 45.4% expected goals-for rating. Still, you wouldn’t know their analytics struggles based on their outcomes. The Blues are on a 3-0-1 run over that four-game sample. Regression is inevitable, as the Blues have vastly overachieved relative to their underlying metrics.

Edmonton’s recent surge is validated by solid analytics, while the Blues’ run is not. On that basis, we see a bettor-friendly advantage in taking a position on the Oilers on Saturday night.

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