3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 13, Bengals at Jaguars

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Christian Kirk Any Time Touchdown (+190)/
Christian Kirk Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football to close out Week 13 of the NFL season.

A larger 9.5-point spread and 39.5-point total set the stage for tonight's matchup, which offers several props worth targeting. Considering the Jaguars have a 24.5 implied team total, they are expected to score and we want player props that reflect that.

Let's start with Christian Kirk any time touchdown (+190) and over 50.5 receiving yards (-110).

For the entire season, Kirk has a 22.8% target share, 30.1% air yards share, and 17.1% red zone target share. He's played 76.6% of snaps and run a route on 87.0% of dropbacks.

If we look at just the last three weeks, those numbers jump to a 24.2% target share, 40.0% air yards share, and 23.1% red zone target share. Over that span, Kirk has played 79.1% of the snaps and run a route on 89.8% of dropbacks.

Kirk is being targeted more often, deeper downfield, and more often in the red zone but has no touchdowns to show for it.

The Bengals' defense is middle-of-the-road against wide receivers, having allowed the 17th most (1,854) receiving yards. With Kirk's high offensive usage, he's primed to finally find the end zone and pile up the yards tonight.

Joe Mixon Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

As 9.5-point underdogs, the Bengals should be playing from behind and put into a passing game script.

The overall game environment is always a good spot to look as an indication of player props and that leads us to Joe Mixon over 18.5 receiving yards (-110).

If the Bengals need to pass the ball more, Mixon should have plenty of chances to pile up some easy yards in the receiving game. That is something he's done a good amount this season and has led to him going over this prop in six of his 11 games.

Mixon comes in with a 10.2% target share and -2.4 average depth of target (aDOT), which means he is being targeted behind the line of scrimmage. The easy checkdowns should be there for Mixon tonight since Jake Browning may not have a ton of time to look downfield to wide receivers.

The Jaguars' defense has a 28.9% blitz rate, which is the eighth-highest in the league, and that has led to them pressuring opposing quarterbacks on 22.5% of dropbacks, which is the 11th-highest in the league. They also allowed 545 receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, which is the fourth-most in the NFL.

The Bengals are playing from behind, the Jaguars bring pressure, Browning doesn't have time to look deep downfield, and Mixon piles up the yards off dump downs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.