3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Thursday 4/11/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Stephen Curry Under 5.5 Assists (+106)

After a season of more downs than ups, the Golden State Warriors have finally clinched a play-in spot.

Though home-court advantage is still on the line, we may see coach Steve Kerr play it safe with the veterans down the stretch, especially in tonight's game against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Portland's -8.6 net rating (fourth-worst) has the Warriors coming into the night as 14.0-point favorites. I would expect Kerr to yank Stephen Curry from the game if the Warriors maintain a large second-half lead.

But even if Curry were to play a full game, the under on his assists prop still looks intriguing.

On the season, Curry is averaging 5.1 assists per game. He's dished out under 5.5 assists in 52.8% of his games, yet these +106 odds imply just a 48.5% probability.

Curry is at his best in fast-paced games, but the Blazers are a pretty slow team. On the season, they've been playing at the 12th-slowest pace while they've operated at the 10th-slowest pace across their last five games.

In three games against Portland this season, Curry has averaged just 3.7 assists despite playing 32.0 minutes per contest. I'd be surprised if he cracks 5.5 assists this evening.

Zion Williamson Under 26.5 Points (-115)

Zion Williamson is averaging 22.9 points per game and has scored under 26.5 points in 68.9% of his games this season.

So, why do these -115 odds suggest a 53.5% probability at a line of 26.5 points?

Well, Brandon Ingram (knee) has been sidelined for the New Orleans Pelicans, leaving Zion with more scoring responsibility.

Even still, his points prop should not be set this high. In 13 games without Ingram, Zion is averaging 23.6 points. He scored under 26.5 points in 7 out of 13 of those games.

His scoring potential is made worse by a matchup against the Sacramento Kings.

The current Western Conference standings prove the importance of this game. Both teams are looking to avoid the play-in.

This showdown, which will be featured on the second leg of an NBA on TNT doubleheader, should have a playoff-like atmosphere that could result in a slower-than-normal pace and a pair of amped-up defenses.

Sacramento's interior defense has already been solid. In 2024, they've been giving up the seventh-fewest paint points per game. They're letting up the fourth-fewest paint points across their last 15 games.

Zion nets a whopping 76.8% of his points in the paint, which may be why he's averaging just 20.3 points in three games against the Kings this season.

FanDuel Research's projections concur that the under is the move, projecting Zion to score just 22.5 points in this one.

Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Made Threes (-128)

Jalen Brunson could get the better of the Boston Celtics from downtown tonight.

Brunson averages 2.7 three-point makes (3PM) per game and shoots the three-ball at a solid 39.9% clip. The Celtics, meanwhile, cede the fifth-most 3PM per night to guards.

Brunson has totally outdone himself in contests against teams that let up a lot of threes to his position.

In 18 games against teams that rank in the top six of most 3PM allowed to guards per game, Brunson is averaging 3.88 3PM per game. He has recorded over 2.5 made threes in 13 out of 18 of these games.

That 18-game sample is pretty strong, so I'm more than willing to back Brunson in this spot. Not only does he have a friendly three-point matchup on deck, but he's also seen an increase in his shot volume as the New York Knicks look to finish the season on a high note.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.