3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 4/9/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 4/9/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

James Harden Over 31.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-122)

With many NBA teams either eliminated from playoff contention or secure in their playoff seeding, the final week of the regular season may look a little funky.

As props are concerned, it's probably apt to target big performances from players in big games.

One of those key games will come between the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns, two teams who have all but clinched postseason play but are still fighting for solid seeding.

The Suns currently own the sixth seed in the West are are looking to avoid the play-ins. The Clippers, meanwhile, sit in fourth place, but a late-season slip-up could risk losing home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

With Kawhi Leonard (knee) ruled out for this contest, let's look for James Harden to have a big night.

This season, Harden has played in 10 games without Leonard. In this split, he is averaging 33.4 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) and has eclipsed 31.5 PRA in 7 out of 10 games.

If we account for only the Leonard-less games where Harden played at least 32 minutes, he is averaging 36.6 PRA and surpassed 31.5 PRA in six out of seven games.

Harden is averaging 34.6 minutes per game this season, and given the importance of a win, we should expect him to log at least that tonight. numberFire's game projections expect Harden to play 35.89 minutes in this one.

Phoenix is a friendly PRA opponent -- at least for opposing guards. On the season, the Suns have let up the 12th-most points, 10th-most assists, and 14th-most rebounds per game to this position.

Harden has played two games against Phoenix this season, netting 36 PRA and 38 PRA in each contest. Add in Leonard's absence and it's easy to see potential in the over.

numberFire's projections expect Harden to record 33.0 PRA this evening.

Michael Porter Jr. 3+ Made Threes (-135)

The Denver Nuggets may have clinched a playoff berth, but their regular-season work is not done yet.

The Nuggets come into the night tied with the Minnesota Timberwolves for the conference's top spot. The Oklahoma City Thunder sit just one game behind these teams, meaning home-court advantage is up in the air for the Nuggets.

Denver's home record (32-8) pales in comparison to their road record (22-16), so winning out in the final week of play could be key.

They'll be granted a matchup against a beat-up Utah Jazz squad this evening, and I'd expect Michael Porter Jr. to make his presence known from behind the arc.

On the season, Porter is averaging 2.8 three-point makes (3PM) per game. He shoots the three-ball at a solid 40.2% clip and ranks 12th in the NBA in total 3PM this season.

Utah's defense has been reckless as of late, and much of the damage allowed has come from long-range. On the season, the Jazz are letting up 14.8 3PM per game (most). They've outdone themself over their last 15 games, giving up 16.3 3PM per game in that span (most).

Dating back to the start of March, Porter has drained at least three three-pointers in 11 of his last 18 games. Further, he nailed at least two threes in 16 out of 18 of these games.

A key date with the Minnesota Timberwolves is set for tomorrow, so I'd expect Denver to come out shooting in lieu of a high-intensity and physical showdown.

FanDuel Research's projections are anticipating 3.1 3PM for Porter in this one.

Derrick White Over 12.5 Points (-122)

The Boston Celtics will visit the Milwaukee Bucks for the first leg of an NBA on TNT doubleheader.

The Celtics are waiting patiently for playoff basketball. Their 62-16 record has not only clinched them the first seed in the Eastern Conference but also home-court advantage for the duration of the playoffs.

We all know Boston will encounter a stretch of meaningless games in the final week of the regular season, but I think the market may have made too bold of an adjustment on Derrick White's points prop.

White is averaging 15.4 points per game this season. He has scored over 12.5 points in 69.0% of his games, while these -122 odds imply just a 54.9% probability.

Joe Mazzulla will play it safe as Boston looks ahead, but I don't think this will prevent White from logging decent minutes, at least tonight.

The Celtics had White sit out for last Friday's game. Mazzulla has been managing his starters' rest schedules individually, and now, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford are both questionable against Milwaukee.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both Horford and Porzingis sit out tonight. If Mazzulla wants one of his players to get some rest, he'll simply keep them out of the lineup.

FanDuel Research's projections expect White to score 13.0 points in this one, a projection that is operating under the assumption that both Porzingis and Horford will play.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.