NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 3/5/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Evan Mobley Over 29.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-113)

The Boston Celtics will visit the Cleveland Cavaliers for the first game of an NBA on TNT doubleheader.

This matchup could serve as a preview for the Eastern Conference Finals, as Boston holds on strong to the East's number-one seed while Cleveland isn't too far behind in third place. However, All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell (knee) will be out for the Cavs in this one.

While Mitchell's absence will tamper with this potential playoff preview, it could allow Evan Mobley to go off.

On the season, Mobley is averaging 29.2 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). He has played in eight games without Mitchell, averaging 32.9 PRA per game in the split.

But if we narrow this split down to only account for games where Mobley played at least 28 minutes -- he is averaging 31.4 minutes per night this year -- he netted a towering 42.2 PRA in six Mitchell-less games.

Mobley's dominance sans Mitchell is further evidenced by on/off court stats. Mobley averages 30.7 PRA per 36 minutes when sharing the court with Mitchell while he accumulates 37.7 PRA when Mitchell is on the bench.

The Celtics don't necessarily pose as an easy matchup as they own the second-best defensive rating in the league. However, Boston's lineup is small and could be made smaller should Kristaps Porzingis (questionable) or Jaylen Brown (questionable) fail to suit up.

Boston might not be able to handle the two-headed interior monster duo that is Mobley and Jarrett Allen. They could play Luke Kornet -- who owns with the worst defensive rating on Boston -- to compete in size, especially if Porzingis is ruled out.

Mobley should play a big factor in this game, and I'd expect his PRA numbers to reflect that.

Kelly Olynyk Over 19.5 Pts + Reb (-125)

With starters Scottie Barnes (hand), Jakob Poeltl (finger), and Bruce Brown Jr. (knee) ruled out, the Toronto Raptors are short on depth and size in tonight's contest against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Enter Kelly Olynyk, a player who should fill the big-man gap and own residency in the paint for Toronto.

Since being traded to the Raptors in February, Olynyk has yet to start a game. But Toronto's depth chart is thin, so we should expect heavy usage from Olynyk, who just last night signed a two-year extension with the Raptors.

For the Raptors, Olynyk is netting 0.66 PR per minute. At that rate, Olynyk would need to play 30.3 minutes tonight in order to exceed 19.5 PR.

Olynyk is averaging 24.0 combined points and rebounds (PR) per 36 minutes when Poeltl is off the court. In theory, this would mean that Olynyk would need to play 30.0 minutes to surpass 19.5 PR.

Barnes, Poeltl, and Brown play a combined 87.7 minutes per night. Factor in that New Orleans has a size-y lineup that will require the defense of opposing bigs, and it's not hard to picture Olynyk playing 30-plus minutes tonight.

FanDuel Research's projections, which are powered by numberFire, anticipate Olynyk to record 21.2 PR off of 31.35 minutes tonight.

I'd also consider Kelly Olynyk to Record a Double-Double at +240.

Brandon Miller Over 4.5 Rebounds (+108)

A date between the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets leaves us with a slate-low 207.5 over/under.

While our hope for an exciting, high-scoring game should be slim at best, there is value in Brandon Miller's rebounding prop.

Miller is averaging 4.1 rebounds per game. Injuries, paired with a busy trade deadline, have left Charlotte with an insufficient amount of cooks in the kitchen, but it has allowed Miller to see unreal court time.

In his last 17 games, Miller is playing 35.3 minutes per contest. Our projections have him playing 35.81 minutes tonight, so it's clear we should expect no different from Miller's usage.

In 40 games where Miller has played 30.0-plus minutes, he has grabbed over 4.5 boards at a 50.0% rate. And in 23 games where Miller has played at least 35.0 minutes, he has exceeded 4.5 rebounds at a 56.5% clip, making the plus odds for this prop intriguing.

Now, Orlando is a super solid rebounding team, surrendering the fewest rebounds per game. However, this can mainly affect the rebounding production of opposing power forwards and centers, and Miller should still be capable of flying in for boards off of jump shots.

Miller has eclipsed 4.5 boards in 4 out of 7 games (where he played at least 30 minutes) against the top-five rebounding teams, including Orlando.

He's been seeing 10.3 rebound chances in his last seven games, so I think the cards will fall in his favor tonight. Our projections have him recording 5.0 boards against the Magic.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.